Joe's SeaBlog

Sea Dogs stacked with Prospects

2010-04-23T12:27:00.003-04:00

Here's a good article about all the prospects on the 2010 Sea Dogs, with a nice comparison to the 2005 team.

We'll see. I'm not saying that this isn't a stacked team, but having "10 of the top 20 prospects in the organization, including seven of the top ten" is all relative. I think that 2005 pool was really really good.

Losing Ugly

2010-04-21T22:06:00.002-04:00

My first Sea Dogs game of the season last night, and it got ugly quick. The second batter of the game hit a two-run home run, and the Binghamton Mets never trailed after that. Starter Ryne Miller had nothing, giving up five hits and four walks in three innings, though he did manage to strike out five. He also managed to walk the bases loaded and then clear them with a grand slam courtesy of Jose Coronado. The bullpen didn't fare any better, and manager Arnie Beyler decided that second baseman Nate Spears would be a good option in the ninth. He wasn't, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis unloaded one of the longest home runs you'll ever see to cap off the scoring.

Nieuwenhuis, with five hits, nearly matched the Sea Dogs total of six. Ryan Kalish had two hits to lead the Portland "attack." I was excited to see Lars Anderson hit, because early indications are that he's bounced back from his horrible season last year. But he looked just the same to me, with a walk worked in between two groundouts and a strike out. Highly-touted Cuban shortstop Jose Iglesias was a disappointment, hacking his way to three strikeouts in four at bats.

At least the weather was nice.

2010 Sea Dogs Loaded with Prospects

2010-04-07T21:06:00.002-04:00

The new season is upon us, and the Portland Sea Dogs are once again stocked with many of Boston's top minor leaguers. Top prospects returning for another go-round, at least to start the year, are first baseman Lars Anderson and outfielder Ryan Kalish. Joining them are highly-touted pitcher Casey Kelly and Cuban import shortstop Jose Iglesias. This exciting core will be complemented by lesser prospects like Yamaico Navarro (moving to third base to accomodate Iglesias), and starting pitchers Steven Fife and Felix Doubront, among others.

The beginning of the season should be a fun time to watch the Sea Dogs. If guys like Anderson, Kalish or Doubront start off strong, they will probably be moved up to AAA by mid-season, but the new arrivals will likely be in town all season.

Another Year, Another Monkee

2010-04-06T20:17:00.002-04:00

It's that time of year again - Monkee Time! In which we put some numbers into a spreadsheet and have it spew out a fairly inaccurate projection for the upcoming season. But hey -

C Victor Martinez (age 31)
237 PA: 3364053/507, 8 HR, 43 Runs Created 2009 Red Sox
540 PA: 298/371/464, 16 HR, 82 Runs Created 2010 Monkee

C Jason Varitek (age 38)
425 PA: 209/313/390, 14 HR, 47 Runs Created 2009
464 PA: 223/325/386, 14 HR, 52 Runs Created 2010
200 PA: 223/325/386, 6 HR, 22 Runs Created 2010 Adjusted

Jason Varitek's bat disappeared once again in 2009, especially after the All Star break, but the Red Sox fixed that problem by trading for Martinez. Victor can really hit, and the Sox will definitely benefit by having him in the lineup instead of Varitek. Martinez had an awful, injury-plagued season in 2008, which is bringing the projection down. I think he'll do better than this.

1B Kevin Youkilis (31)
588 PA: 305/413/548, 27 HR, 117 RC 2009
607 PA: 304/402/535, 25 HR, 114 RC Monkee

Youkilis has been pretty consistent over the last couple of years, and there's no reason to think that sill stop. Given his history prior to 2008, I'm still dubious about his long-term prospects as a power hitter, so I think a mid-20's homer total is probably reasonable.

2B Dustin Pedroia (26)
714 PA: 296/370/447, 15 HR, 105 RC 2009
690 PA: 310/372/463, 14 HR, 108 RC Monkee

Pedroia is becoming a steady producer at the top of the order. His batting average dipped a bit in 2009, but I expect a bounceback in 2010. I'm always bullish on Pedroia, but he's getting to that age where he should have two or three really great seasons in him. So let's say that I think the Monkee projection is a little light.

3B Adrian Beltre (31)
556 PA: 268/316/432, 17 HR, 68 RC Monkee

3B Mike Lowell (36)
484 PA: 290/337/474, 17 HR, 63 RC 2009
514 PA: 294/348/477, 18 HR, 73 RC Monkee

As with Varitek, the Sox went out and replaced a member of the starting lineup while he is still on the roster. In this case it's Lowell, who can still hit but whose limited mobility has made him a liability in the field. Beltre gives a little bit back with the bat, particularly in terms of OBP, but his fielding is excellent and should make up for any offensive shortfall. That said, many people believe that Beltre will thrive with Fenway's short porch, and exceed the power numbers projected here.

SS Marco Scutaro (34)
622 PA: 235/294/358, 12 HR, 68 RC (Green, Lugo, Gonzalez, Lowrie) 2009
588 PA: 274/357/384, 9 HR, 75 RC Marco Scutaro Monkee

A good baseball axiom would be that a lot of Nick Green is a bad thing. Last year, the Red Sox saw a lot of Nick Green, with the result that the Boston shortstops combined for an abysmal, sub-.300 OBP. Scutaro is not a great offensive player by any stretch of the imagination, and I think the OBP number here is a little high. But Scutaro is not in the business of giving away outs, so he'll definitely be an upgrade here. His glove work might not be up to the standards of Alex Gonzalez, but he's steady and clearly superior to Green on defense.

LF Jacoby Ellsbury (26)
691 PA: 301/352/415, 8 HR, 99 RC 2009
650 PA*: 296/346/412, 9 HR, 91 RC 2009 Monkee

Ellsbury moved his game forward a bit last year, bringing his OBP up to an acceptable figure for a leadoff man. His modest power numbers were augmented by a ton of speed (70 steals). He's a guy who seems to have the ability to use his speed to be an effective offensive player, and I expect more of the same this year.

CF Mike Cameron (37)
638 PA: 267/384/537, 36 HR, 117 RC (LF Jason Bay) 2009
593 PA: 246/336/455, 24 HR, 83 RC Monkee

Here he is, the guy who has absolutely ruined the Red Sox offense for the 2010 season. Jason Bay was the only "Big Bopper" in the Boston lineup last year (irrespective of 20+ HR guys like Martinez and Youkilis and Lowell and Drew and Ortiz), and there is no way Cameron can replace that offense. Oh, sure, he's a decent bet to hit 20+ homers himself, and he gives you a decent OBP for a low BA/high strikeout guy, but still. The offense sucks because of this guy. Good thing he's so incredibly much better than Bay with the glove. Holistic sabermetric valuation has Cameron just as productive a player as Bay.

RF JD Drew (34)
539 PA: 279/391/522, 24 HR, 96 RC 2009
514 PA: 277/392/499, 20 HR, 87 RC Monkee

Drew's numbers have been remarkably similar the last couple of years, and the Monkee expects more of the same. The calculation goes back three years, so JD's 11-homer 2007 season dampens the power projection. I think he'll slug over .500, but that's picking nits at this point.

DH David Ortiz (33)
627 PA: 238/332/462, 28 HR, 86 RC 2009
590 PA: 267/369/511, 28 HR, 98 RC Monkee

Ortiz' numbers have shown a precipitous decline over the last couple of years. Big Papi struggled mightily over the first two months, especially in terms of power production. Given this dropoff, the Monkee seems a little optimistic showing this kind of bounceback. However, these numbers aren't far off from what Ortiz produced from June 1 on last year (264/356/548), so they should be attainable. I hope.

The Red Sox were third in the American League last year with 872 runs scored (5.38 per game). Because there was a lot of talk about the Sox improving their "run prevention" with the additions of Beltre, Cameron and Scutaro (along with starting pitcher John Lackey), there has been a lot of jabber about how this is going to be a poor offense. I just don't see it. Sure, the Red Sox have given up runs in the Bay/Cameron swap, but they've also added runs at catcher and shortstop, and hopefully will get a bit more production from the DH position.

The Red Sox lineup contains three guys who are among the elite hitters at their position (Martinez, Youkilis and Pedroia), and six other guys who are above average. That's a very good offense, one that will score a lot of runs. I look for the Sox to again be among the top three scoring teams in the AL. Combine that with pitching and defense that should significantly cut back on the runs allowed, and you once again have a powerful team.

Hall of Fame pReview Part 7 - The Final Chapter

2010-02-08T20:52:00.004-05:00

It's been two months since I started this project, and a month since the Hall of Fame vote made the "preview" aspect of this moot, but we've finally reached our last three candidates: the returning pitchers! There are three players in this group, all of whom have been riding the fence for some time now.

Bert Blyleven (1970-1992 with Minnesota, Cleveland and others): 287-250, .534 W/L%, 3.31 ERA, 118 ERA+, 1.20 WHIP.

Here he is, the hottest of the hot-button candidates in the battle between "traditional" voters and the newfangled "Sabermetric" voters. When studied objectively with the slightest bit of rigor, Blyleven's numbers reveal that he was a great pitcher for a very long time. He was among the league leaders in ERA for the first time when he was 20, and he was for the final time when he was 38. And he was among the league leaders in ERA 8 times in between. He was very durable and regularly finished among the league leaders in innings pitched (11 top 10 finishes), complete games (12) and shutouts (10). He also regularly hit the leaderboard in WHIP (11 times), strikeouts (15) and K/BB ratio (16!). He is 50th all time in K/BB ratio, 27th in wins with 287, 9th in shotouts (60) and 5th all time in strikeouts with 3,701. He played on two World Champions and had a 2.45 career postseason ERA. His 10 most similar career comps include 8 Hall of Famers (Sutton, Perry, Jenkins, Wynn, Roberts, Seaver, Niekro and Carlton) and two close-but-no-cigar guys (Tommy John and Jim Kaat).

The case against Blyleven revolves around the fact that he didn't get to 300 wins, and that his win/loss percentage is rather pedestrian. Both are the result of playing for some not-very-good teams, particularly the Twins early in his career. Another knock against Blyleven is that he gave up a lot of homers over two seasons while playing for the Twins late in his career - though he provided 540 innings of 4.00 ERA pitching in the process. But I think the biggest knock against Blyleven is that he doesn't "feel" like a Hall of Famer - he wasn't considered one of the best of his era, as evidenced by his modest support in Cy Young voting. Again, this can largely be traced to his playing for poor teams and the overemphasis placed by voters on win totals.

Ultimately for me, the argument comes down to actual performance rather than the buzz that might have surrounded a player during his career. I think Blyleven's performance makes him worthy of the Hall (and he's practically a shoe-in after falling just five votes short this year.) Then there is the anti-Blyleven:

Jack Morris (1977-1994, primarily with Detroit). 254-186, .577 W/L%, 3.90 ERA, 105 ERA+, 1.30 WHIP. Morris was a good pitcher. He had a high won/loss percentage. He won more games than any other AL pitcher during the 1980s. He was Dominant! Though, curiously, Morris has the exact same number of Cy Young awards as Bert Blyleven (0). As Blyleven's career record was a product of his teams, so was Morris, who was on some terrific Tigers teams during the 80's and finished up as a mercenary on some champion Twins and Blue Jays teams in the 90's. And of course he outdueled John Smoltz with a 10-inning shutout to lead the Twins to the 1991 World Series title. He was a postseason God.

But he was also a postseason chump. He got hammered in the 1992 postseason - 0-3 with a 7.00+ ERA, but that didn't stop him from earning a ring with the Blue Jays. His ERA is much higher than any other Hall of Fame pitcher, and his 105 ERA+ is barely above average. It's good, but certainly not immortal. What Morris did well was pitch a lot of innings, regularly appearing among the league leaders in starts, complete games and innings pitched. And because he was doing so for good teams, he racked up a lot of wins. For sure, Morris also has a lot of Hall of Famers among his career comps (Gibson, Ruffing, Rusie, Grimes, Feller and Bunning), but there is also a close-but-no guy (Tiant) and three players who nobody considers Hall of Famers: Dennis Martinez, Jamie Moyer and Chuck Finley.

For fun, go here and compare Jack Morris to Dennis Martinez. Then come back and try to argue that Morris is more deserving of the Hall. I don't think you can do it.

Lee Smith (1980-1997, primarily with the Cubs and Cardinals): 71-92, 3.03 ERA, 131 ERA+, 1.26 WHIP, 478 Saves. A top reliever whose career spanned from the "Fireman" days of the late 70's/early 80's to the "closer" days of the 1990's. Smith was a four-time league leader in saves and once held the all-time record in the category. (He's now 3rd.) Voters have had a hard time gauging how relievers are to fit in to the Hall of immortals. Some question how important closers really are, while others think they need to be compared with their peers. The problem is that the position of "closer" is so new that the save totals are constantly being pushed forward.

Smith was a fine pitcher who had a much longer life as a back-end guy than most. He finished among the league leaders in saves 14 times, and he made 7 all star games. The problem is that he wasn't always that good in racking up those saves, evidenced by his 3.88 ERA while compiling 46 saves in 1993. Does durability and longevity make a Hall of Famer? I'm not sure. His career comps include a couple of the guys already enshrined (Rollie Fingers and Bruce Sutter), and two guys who will definitely get in (Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera). But they also include John Franco, and as with the Morris/Martinez comparison above, I'll ask the you compare Lee Smith to John Franco. Either they are both in or they are both out, in my opinion, and I don't think John Franco is a Hall of Famer. Therefore, neither should be Lee Smith.

Hall of Fame PReview, Part 6

2010-02-04T21:09:00.003-05:00

Wow, time flies! We're already into February. Perhaps we'll get this done before Spring Training.

Today we'll look at four hitters who all deserve serious consideration, one of whom received same:

Andre Dawson – OF (1976-1996, primarily with the Expos and Cubs): 279/323/482-438-1,591, 119 OPS+, 314 SB. 1987 NL MVP and perennial candidate. 8 time All Star and 8 time Gold Glove winner. Many have decried Dawson's election, which was inevitable given Dawson's vote total and the election of Jim Rice to the Hall in 2009. I don't think Dawson is a strong Hall of Famer, but he was a much better player than Rice and others in the Hall. Before his knees started to betray him, Dawson was a true five-tool power who combined terrific power with terrific defense. His NL MVP in 1987 is considered a travesty by Sabermetrically-inclined analysts because it's the direct result of an overemphasis on RBI. While I agree that Jack Clark probably deserved the trophy, Dawson did have a good season, except for his low on-base percentage. And that's the primary knock on Dawson - that his career OBP is far below any other outfielder in the Hall. (This is widely but erroneously reported as Dawson's OBP being lower than any other player in the Hall, but there are catchers and middle infielders with lower OBPs than Dawson). Dawson does OK on the Gray Ink and HOF Monitor measures, and he's got a host of immortals on his top career comps (Billy Williams, Tony Perez, Al Kaline, Ernie Banks and Dave Winfield,)

So, despite the criticism, the voters could have done worse than to elect Andre Dawson to the Hall of Fame. But they could have done better, considering Dawson was not the best player from the 1980's Expos teams who was on the ballot.

Tim Raines – CF (1979-2002, primarily with Montreal): 294/384/425-170-980, 123 OPS+, 808 SB (5th all time). One of the greatest leadoff hitters in the history of Major League Baseball, and in my opinion the most deserving player among the returnees on the ballot, Raine's candidacy faces two roadblocks: 1) he was a direct contemporary of THE greatest leadoff hitter of all time (Rickey Henderson); and 2) Raines' extraordinarily long career resulted in his hitting the ballot a full 20 years after his last great season in 1987.

As noted above, Raines was one of the most prolific base stealers of all time, leading the NL four times in his career. He was also one of the most efficient, and his 85% success rate was one of the best all time. Raines also led the league in runs scored on two occasions and won a batting title. He also routinely was among the league leaders in drawing walks, a valuable skill that was underappreciated during his career. Raines had many good seasons over the last 15 years of his career, but he incurred many injuries and his seasonal totals were dampened by the lack of playing time. Still, his career totals measure up to the standards of others who have been enshrined, and he counts Hall of Famers Lou Brock, Max Carey, Fred Clarke and Enos Slaughter among his top career comparable players.

Mark McGwire – 1B (1986-2001, Oakland and St. Louis): 263/394/588-583-1,414, 162 OPS+. One of the most prolific home run hitters of all time. McGwire broke Roger Maris' single season record by hitting 70 in 1998. The arguments for his enshrinement are pretty solid: Rookie of the Year in 1987, 12-time All Star, former single-season record holder for home runs, four time HR champ, 8th on the all-time HR list, best HR/AB ratio of all time. Oh, and he won a gold glove once. The arguments against him: he was a one dimensional player, and he accomplished what he did due to steroids.

On the first count: well, McGwire did a little more than hit home runs. He drew a lot of walks and had a high OBP. He was OK in the field. And that one thing that he was real good at IS kind of the best thing a hitter can be good at.

On the second count: I haven't addressed it much in this blog, if at all, but I'm not really worked up about steroids. Without question McGwire wouldn't have had the kind of career that he had absent steroids. On the other hand, we're comparing him to his peers, and it's becoming more and more apparent that many (most) McGwire's peers also were taking steroids. It was the steroid era, and the best players under those circumstances should, in my opinion, be allowed into the Hall of Fame.

So far, it's not looking all that good for Big Mac, but he belongs. His career comps, none of whom match up all that well, are Harmon Killebrew and Willie McCovey. #1 and #2 on his list are notorious 'roiders Jose Canseco and Jason Giambi.

Alan Trammell – SS (1977-1996, Tigers): 285/352/415185-1,003, 110 OPS+. Trammell's an interesting case. He was a very good hitter for a shortstop, and he was a fine fielder who won four gold gloves. He was a six-time All Star and earned MVP votes seven times, finishing second in the 1987 vote. He also batted .450 in the 1984 World Series and was named MVP of that series. Working against Trammell is the fact that three contemporary shortstops (Ripken, Yount and Ozzie Smith) are already enshrined. Also working against him is the fact that he missed a lot of time in the latter part of his career, exceeding 130 games only once in his 30's.

I think Trammell is a borderline guy who, had he played in the 1950's, would have been elected by the Veteran's Committee, and I think his candidacy might be going in that direction. I'm not sure how I would vote on him if given the opportunity. But he'd not be the worst guy in the Hall. Career comps include Hall of Famers Pee Wee Reese and Ryne Sandberg, and the list is topped by probable inductee Barry Larkin.

Hall of Fame PReview, Part 5

2010-01-13T20:46:00.005-05:00

Now that the voting is in and Andre Dawson has been elected, it's time for me to continue my review of this year's candidates. Since we already know how the voting turned out, I'm going to sort of start from the bottom and work my way up.

Today we'll look at four bats who all fall a bit short:

Harold Baines – OF (1980-2001, primarily with the Chicago White Sox): 289/356/365-384-1,628, 120 OPS+. A good hitter, especially in the first part of his career with Chicago, Baines' candidacy is sunk by the fact that he played in about 60% of his games as the Designated Hitter. Made six all star games, including the 1999 classic at age 40, a season in which he posted a 135 OPS+. Won't make the Hall, because his very good hitting comes with zero defensive contribution. A handful of Hall of Famers on his career comps, including Tony Perez, Al Kaline, Billy Williams, Jim Rice and Dawson. All but Kaline are fairly marginal members of the Hall.

Dale Murphy – CF (1976-1993, primarily with Atlanta): 265/346/469-398-1,266, 121 OPS+. The classic example of prematurely labelling a player as a "sure-fire Hall of Famer" mid-career. At age 31, Dale Murphy was a sure-fire Hall of Famer. Two MVP's, seven all star appearances, five gold gloves, and 310 career home runs - well on his way to 500 for his career. Then it all stopped. Murphy only hit above .250 once more in his career (.252), never again hit more than 24 HRs in a season, never again knocked in more than 84 runs, never made another all star game, and he was finished at age 37. Murphy only has one Hall of Famer on his career comp list, and not a particularly strong one in Duke Snider.

Dave Parker – OF (1973-1991, primarily with the Pittsburgh): 290/339/471-339-1,493, 121 OPS+. Like Murphy, Parker was a monster at the beginning of his career. Through age 27, Parker was a perennial MVP candidate with one already under his belt, along with three gold gloves and two all star games. Then he found the drugs, and the drugs didn't like his game. He made a couple more all star teams the next couple of seasons, but went five years with sub-800 OPS. Then he came back with a huge year at age 34 with the Reds (.312-34-125, second in the MVP vote) and followed up with another almost as impressive. Parker hung around as a decent bat for a few more years, but is one of the great "Coulda Beens" of the last 30 years. Top career comp is Luis Gonzalez, with HOFers Perez, Billy Williams and Dawson (along with Baines) rounding out the top 5.

Don Mattingly – 1B (1982-1995, Yankees): 307/358/471-222-1,099, 127 OPS+. Stop me if you've heard this one before: Mattingly was one of the best players in the majors his first few seasons in the big leagues. At age 28 he was a lifetime .323 hitter with a 144 OPS+, had one batting title and one MVP to his name, and was already a six-time all star and five-time Gold Glove winner. Then he had a back injury that sapped him of his power for the rest of his career. Mattingly remained a solid fielder, and his supporters point to his 10 total Gold Gloves as a prime consideration for his inclusion in the hall. But the bottom line is that first basemen get into the Hall of Fame by hitting home runs, and 222 is just too low a number to warrant inclusion. It doesn't help that his career fit neatly between the perennial Yankee playoff teams of the 1970's and 1990's. Mattingly's injuries and shortish career leave him outside looking in at the Hall of Fame.

Hall of Fame Preview, Part 4

2010-01-06T12:54:00.002-05:00

Wow, it's been like a month since I wrote Part 3! I blame the holidays. I don't really have anything ready to post for the returning candidates, but I still plan to do so. In light of this afternoon's announcement, however, I thought I would drop a quick post. I believe that this afternoon the BBWAA will announce that Roberto Alomar and Andre Dawson have been elected to the Hall of Fame. As stated previously, I support the Alomar induction. To be reported in the future, I'm not really behind Dawson for the Hall, but given last year's results (he received 68% of the vote and Jim Rice was elected), I think he'll go in. Dawson was a better player than Rice, and it seems likely that fact will swing some voters. Then again, Dwight Evans was a better player than both of them, and he only lasted for one ballot. So you never know.

I think Bert Blyleven and Barry Larkin will receive significant support but fall short this time around. Nobody else has a real chance to get elected this year, so I'll save further commentary on them for later. I do think that Harold Baines will receive less than 5% of the vote and fall off the ballot, however.

Hall of Fame Preview, Part 3

2009-12-07T21:23:00.005-05:00

This is the third part in our series reviewing those on the Hall of Fame ballot. In parts one and two, I discussed the down-ballot candidates who will have trouble staying on the ballot, or for many, earning any votes. Today we look at the new entries who will receive serious consideration for election, including two who I believe are deserving of the ultimate honor.

Edgar Martinez – DH/3B (1987-2004 Seattle): 312/418/515-309-1,261, 147 OPS+. Simply stated, Edgar Martinez could hit. His career triple-slash stats are all in the top 100 all time, including 22^nd in OBP, 34^th in OPS and 43^rd in OPS+. He won two batting titles and finished in the top 10 seven times. He won three OBP titles and finished in the top 10 eleven times. He won one OPS title among eight top 10 finishes. He drew a ton of walks, hit a ton of doubles, and scored and drove in a lot of runs. His bat was strong enough to send Martinez Unfortunately, he didn’t do much more than hit. Martinez came up as a third baseman, but had difficulty staying on the field due to injuries. He became a full-time DH at age 32, after which time his bat flourished. to seven All Star games and earn MVP votes five times.

Martinez is below average for a Hall of Famer on the Black Ink and Gray Ink measures, but does hold his own on the HOF Monitor and HOF Standards tests. I don’t put as much stock in the Ink for modern players, who are competing against a much larger player pool to get on the leaderboards. Martinez’ bat must be judged against the first basemen and corner outfielders in the Hall, by which measure his career totals begin to pale. His top career comp is Will Clark, who received no real consideration for the Hall. The only Hall of Famer among Martinez’ top 10 comps is Orlando Cepeda, at #10 and himself a marginal member of the Hall. Also on the list is Bernie Williams, who might get inducted one day, but if so it will have more to do with the World Series rings than for his playing record.

Fred McGriff – 1B (1986-2004, prominently with Atlanta, Toronto and Tampa Bay): 284/377/509-493-1,550, 134 OPS+. McGriff will be an interesting case, because what happened in the first half of his career seems to be overshadowed by what happened in the second half of his career. McGriff was one of the top power hitters in the majors from his first full season in 1988 until the strike ended the 1994 season, the winner of two home run titles in that time frame and on pace to hit 50 homers in 1994. At that time in his career, he was 30 years old with 262 homers and a career OPS+ of 153 – numbers that closely matched Hall of Famer Willie McCovey.

After that point, while still a potent hitter, McGriff clearly slipped from his previous lofty performance. He still had three 30-HR seasons left in him, and he exceeded 900 OPS twice, but such numbers came at a time when league leaders were exceeding 50, 60, even 70 home runs per year. As a result, even his early-career accomplishments lost some luster – through no fault of his own, having at one time led the league with 36 and 35 homers no longer impressed. Indeed, McGriff never hit as many as 40 homers in a single season. On the flip side, I’ve never seen McGriff associated with steroids, which may be a point in his favor with voters.

That said, McGriff has a strong claim to the Hall of Fame. He’s tied with Lou Gehrig for 26^th on the all time home run list with 493. Ironically, this number may come back to haunt him, as there is likely to be backlash over the fact that he didn’t make it to 500. McGriff never won an MVP award, but he received votes 8 times and finished in the top 10 six of those. He has four Hall of Famers among his top 10 career comps (top comp McCovey, Willie Stargell, Billy Williams, and Eddie Matthews), along with a couple more likely inductees (Jeff Bagwell and the right Frank Thomas). As with others of his class, McGriff falls a bit short on the Black and Gray Ink tests, but he’s right in line with the average HOF members in the Monitors and Standards measures. And that’s probably what will be his biggest hurdle – McGriff was one of the great hitters of all time, but he’s exceeded by several other first basemen already in the Hall or on the way. I think he’ll stick around on the ballot, but it remains to be seen if he’ll gather enough support over the years to make it.

Deserving Hall of Famers

Barry Larkin – SS (1984 – 2004, Cincinnati): 295/371/444-198-960, 379 SBs, 116 OPS+. I don’t hear a lot of buzz about Larkin, but among those I read and correspond with, Barry Larkin seems like a no-brainer. He was a 12-time All Star, won 9 silver slugger awards, three gold gloves, and the 1995 National League MVP. Larkin also batted .338 with three homers in 17 career post season games, and led the Reds to the 1990 World Series title.

Late in Larkin’s career, the “new” prototype for offense-first shortstops came into vogue, led by Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, and Derek Jeter, and threatened to turn the more traditional-looking Larkin into an afterthought. Ten years on, however, that doesn’t seem to be the case. ARod moved to third base and Nomar’s career derailed due to injury, while Jeter’s game was always much more comparables to Larkin’s to begin with. Larkin hit for average, drew a lot of walks without striking out, and was a very prolific and successful base stealer in the first half of his career. His top career comp is Alan Trammell, who has an interesting case in his own right (we’ll be looking at him later). Others on the list of comps include Hall of Famers Ryne Sandberg, Joe Cronin and Pee Wee Reese, along with Jeter, who will no doubt earn a plaque following his retirement. Another notable career comp to Larkin is the man we discuss next: Roberto Alomar.

Roberto Alomar – 2B (1988-2004, prominently with Toronto, Cleveland, Baltimore and San Diego ): 300/371/443-210, 1,134, 474 SB, 116 OPS+. 12-time all star, 10 time gold glove winner, five times a top-10 vote getter for MVP. For 14 seasons, Robbie Alomar was a no-brainer Hall of Fame talent, on his way to an easy 3,000 hits and first-ballot induction. Then at age 34 he was traded to the Mets and suddenly became a .260 hitter instead of a .300 hitter. He was done just two years later. People seem to hold that against Alomar, but every player suffers some down years. Alomar was simply the best second baseman in baseball for a decade and a half – hitting for average, stealing bases, scoring a ton of runs and even driving in 100+ a couple of times.

Alomar’s career ended a little too abruptly for him to reach the upper-echelons in most career statistics. He did manage to finish in the top 50 in doubles and steals, and he’s slightly above that number in many other categories. He had a fine post season record, hitting .313 in 58 games and he played the keystone for both of Toronto’s world champion squads. His top career comp is Jeter, and in addition to Larkin he has five other Hall of Famers on his list: Frankie Frisch, Ryne Sandberg, Joe Morgan, Charlie Gehringer, and George Davis. Alomar should go into the Hall of Fame on his first ballot this year.

Hall of Fame Preview, Part 2

2009-12-04T21:44:00.005-05:00

In Part 1, we looked at the players new to this year's Hall of Fame ballot who really have no chance of ever getting elected. Today, we'll take a look at three entries who will probably get some support, but who really fall short of the standards for immortality. They may or may not get to the 5% level needed to remain on the ballot for next year. In the post the follows, we'll take a look at the new entries who are either borderline candidates, or who are clearly worthy of the Hall.

The Hall of Very Good:

Ellis Burks – OF (1987-2004, prominently with Boston and Colorado): 291/363/510-352-1,206, 181 SB, 126 OPS+. Oft-injured throughout his career, Burks had a couple of great seasons which resulted in two all star selections. He also won a Gold Glove early in his career and finished third in the MVP vote in 1996. Fine rate stats were enhanced by 4+ seasons in Colorado when Coors Field was COORS FIELD! Top career comp is Moises Alou, though his top 10 list includes Hall of Famer Duke Snider, and a few guys who deserved (or deserve) more serious consideration than they received, including Dick Allen, Reggie Smith, Fred Lynn and (prospectively) Jim Edmonds.

Andres Galarraga – 1B (1985-2004, prominently with Montreal and Colorado): 288/347/499-399-1,425, 128 SB, 118 OPS+. A powerful first baseman, Galarraga had a monster year with the Expos in 1988, then faded for several years under injuries and an inability to make contact before storming back with the Rockies. Even more so than Burks, however, Galarraga’s numbers carry the taint of Coors field. Still, there are some impressive results, one batting title (.370 in 1993), one home run title, and two RBI titles. Galarraga gathered five All Star appearances and six times in the top 10 of the MVP vote during his career. He also collected two Gold Gloves along the way. His career comps are impressive: three of the top four are in the Hall of Fame (Orlando Cepeda, Jim Rice, Willie Stargell), while another, Jeff Bagwell, will be inducted in a few years. We’ll discuss the worthiness of still another, Fred McGriff, in a later post.

Robin Ventura – 3B (1989-2004, primarily with the White Sox): 267/362/444-294-1,182, 114 OPS+. Good hit/good field third baseman. Ventura had the classic corner infielder’s combination of power and patience at the plate, with two 30 HR/100 RBI seasons. He was respected enough that he finished in the top 10 in intentional walks seven times. Ventura was also a smooth fielder, winning six gold gloves at third base during his career. On the flip side, he didn’t garner a lot of hardware outside of the defensive accolades. He was named to just two All Star teams, and received MVP votes just twice, finishing 6^th in 1999 and 20^th in 1991. Top career comp is Ron Cey.

Hall of Fame Preview, Part 1

2009-12-03T20:32:00.006-05:00

The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) has released the list of finalists for the 2010 Hall of Fame Ballot. This includes newly-added players who have been retired five years, meet the minimum service requirements and passed the preliminary vetting process, as well as eligible carryovers from last year’s ballot who received at least 5% of the vote (but not the 75% required for election). Over the next few posts, I plan to take a look at this year’s crop, and separate the pretenders from the contenders.

First, the low-hanging fruit. Every year there are a handful of players who get nominated for the ballot, but who nobody thinks actually belong in the Hall of Fame. Lets take a quick look at those one-year-wonders who will neither get elected nor return to the ballot next year. There are a few who are worth a look, but ultimately fall short. There are also a few who really have no business on the ballot. Let's break them down.

Worth Talking About

Kevin Appier - P (1989-2004, primarily with Kansas City): 169-137, .552 W/L %, 3.74 ERA, 121 ERA+, 1.29 WHIP. One of the best pitchers in the American League through most of the 1990’s, including one ERA title, but no significant career leaderboard appearancs, no hardware and only one All Star game. Top career comp: Andy Benes.

Pat Hentgen - P (1991-2004, primarily with Toronto): 131-112, .539 W/L %, 4.32 ERA, 108 ERA+, 1.39 WHIP. Hentgen had a decent five-year stretch, featuring a Cy Young Award in 1996. Hentgen also made a couple of All Star teams and was an integral part of Toronto’s 1993 World Series Championship. Pitched 260+ innings in each of 1996 and 1997, but never reached 200 IP in a season again. Top career comp: Todd Stottlemyre.

Ray Lankford - OF (1990-2004, primarily with St. Louis): 272/364/477-238-874, 238 SB, 122 OPS+. Lankford maybe deserves better than this. He quietly put up some monster numbers in the mid-to-late 1990’s, featuring a corner OF bat in center field. Lankford topped .900 OPS twice, which is phenomenal, but nobody noticed because he was on the same team as Mark McGwire. Lankford also stole a lot of bases early in his career, but he got caught a bunch, too. He also struck out a lot and suddenly stopped being good at age 35. Top career comp is Kirk Gibson. Also has Hall of Famer Larry Doby on his career comps.

Probably Shouldn't be on the Ballot

Mike Jackson - P (1986-2004, prominently with Seattle, San Francisco and Cleveland): 62-67, 142 saves, 3.42 ERA, 125 ERA+, 1.22 WHIP. Jackson was a workhorse reliever for many years, and collected a bunch of saves as Cleveland’s closer in the late 90’s. Top career comp: Mike Timlin.

Eric Karros 1B (1991-2004, primarily with the Dodgers): 268/325/454-287-1,027, 107 OPS+. 1992 Rookie of the year. Had five seasons of 30+ HR/100+ RBI. Top career comp is Kent Hrbek. Also has Frank Thomas on his career comps, just not the right one.

Shane Reynolds - P (1992-2004, primarily with Houston): 114 - 96, .543 W/L %, 4.09 ERA, 103 RA+, 1.31 WHIP. Reynolds’ appearance on the ballot serves primarily to insult Dave Burba, a similar pitcher (115-87) who for some reason didn’t get through the nominating committee with Reynolds. Reynolds was a durable and effective guy for a few years. What he did have going for him was the ability to strike batters out with good control: his career K/BB rate of 3.35 is 20th-best all time. Top career comp: Matt Morris.

David Segui 1B (1990-2004, prominently with Baltimore, Seattle, and Cleveland): 291/359/443-139-684, 110 OPS+. Oft-injured and oft-traded, Segui was a fine player who developed into a solid BA/OBP guy. As a first baseman, however, his batting was far from special. He also had a decent defensive rep, though he never won a gold glove. Top career comp is Sean Casey.

Todd Zeile 2B (1989-2004, primarily with St. Louis): 265/346/423-253-1,110, 103 OPS+. He was pretty consistent, especially over the first half of his career, which was spent with St. Louis. He bounced around a lot after that. Zeile had some pop, but was never a leaderboard sort of guy. Top career comp is Tim Wallach.

Yay for the Monkee

2009-10-10T00:16:00.001-04:00

Huh! Is it playoff time already? Indeed it is, and the Red Sox are once again embroiled with the Angels. Let’s take this opportunity to see how the Monkee did in predicting batting performance this season.

C Jason Varitek (age 37)
481 PA: 236/334/388, 14 HR, 55 Runs Created 2009 Monkee
425 PA: 209/313/390, 14 HR, 47 RC actual

Well, the power figures exceeded expectations. The captain was actually having a pretty decent season, going into the All Star break with an .826 OPS and 13 homers. Afterward he hit .157 with one home run, with the free fall really taking stride when Boston acquired Victor Martinez at the trade deadline. And thank goodness for that. Varitek probably doesn’t warrant anything other than a third catcher/bullpen coach role next year.

1B Kevin Youkilis (30)
645 PA: 297/390/500, 21 HR, 109 RC Monkee
588 PA: 304/413/548, 27 HR, 117 RC actual

The Monkee and I were skeptical of Youk’s power surge in 2008, but he proved us wrong this year. I still think this will be a short-term fad, but I’m not complaining. Youk improved his walk rate a bit again this year.

2B Dustin Pedroia (25)
650* PA: 318/369/468, 13 HR, 105 RC Monkee
714 PA: 296/371/443, 15 HR, 105 RC actual

The reigning MVP won’t repeat that honor this year. Pedroia’s batting average dropped by quite a bit, which is also directly reflected in his slugging figure. Before the season I predicted that Pedroia would improve his walk rate this year, and that was borne out. So I got that going for me.

3B Mike Lowell (35)
564 PA: 296/354/479, 19 HR, 83 RC Monkee
484 PA: 290/337/494, 17 HR, 63 RC actual

Lowell’s hip injury cost him some playing time again this year. BA and slugging were pretty accurate, but his walk rate, which was never great to begin with, is slipping.

SS Julio Lugo (33) /Jed Lowrie (25)
452 PA: 256/320/359, 6 HR, 49 RC Julio Lugo Monkee
123 PA: 284/352/367, 1 HR, 16 RC actual (Boston only)

Well, Lugo was hurt and couldn’t play, then he came back and couldn’t field, so he still didn’t play. Meantime Jed Lowrie got hurt and had surgery. Meantime Nick Green had a few good games and fooled everyone into thinking he could handle an everyday shortstop job. Then Lugo got traded away, Alex Gonzalez got traded for, and Green got hurt. Though lacking power, Lugo did outperform his Monkee-projected slash rates for the Sox, then continued to do so with the Cardinals. This was expected, because his execrable 2007 season was weighted into this mix.

LF Jason Bay (30)
655 PA: 274/364/491, 29 HR, 107 RC Monkee
638 PA: 267/384/567, 36 HR, 117 RC actual

Not too bad of a prediction. Once again the Monkee shortchanged the power numbers. Bay’s walk rate was also better than normal. Bay was another guy with a crappy 2007 season in the mix, which helped keep the prediction down.

CF Jacoby Ellsbury (25)
650 PA*: 290/341/409, 10 HR, 89 RC Monkee
691 PA: 301/355/415, 8 HR, 99 RC actual

The Monkee did well with Ellsbury, too. Jacoby had a slightly higher BA, which flow through the other slash stats. Ellsbury’s team-record 70 steals are reflected in the inflated runs created number.

RF JD Drew (33)
517 PA: 277/392/479, 17 HR, 85 RC Monkee
529 PA: 279/392/522, 24HR, 96 RC actual

The Monkee was damn close with Drew, once again only missing out on the power numbers. Once again, a poor 2007 season depressed that projection.

DH David Ortiz (33)
590 PA: 295/408/580, 33 HR, 120 RC Monkee
627 PA: 238/332/462, 28 HR, 86 RC actual.

Here’s one that the Monkee didn’t do to good on. Ortiz didn’t hit at all for the first two months of the year, which doomed his slash stats. He did make a comeback through the rest of the year in terms of home runs, but this is nothing short of disappointing for Ortiz.

Overall, this was one of the best years for the Monkee. Varitek and Ortiz both fell short of expectations, but this was mostly related to age-related decline that this type of system won’t pick up. A few other guys showed more power than the Monkee precicted, but overall everything was within the ballpark of the predictions. So yay for the Monkee!

Drabek Stymies Sea Dogs

2009-08-21T21:30:00.003-04:00

Better than Halladay?

Kyle Drabek made a name for himself this summer as being a pitcher that the Philadelphia Phillies were unwilling to trade to the Toronto Blue Jays for ace Roy Halladay. Thursday night at Hadlock Field he demonstrated why that might be, throwing seven shutout innings in Reading's 6-0 victory over the Portland Sea Dogs.

Drabek is still just 21 years old, but pitching well in his first taste of AA. He mixes hard off-speed stuff with a tantalizing, mid-90's fastball (topping out at 96 mph on Thursday). By "tantalizing," I mean that he got several Sea Dogs batters to chase his four-seamer, resulting in several popups, if not outright swings and misses. His offspeed stuff was effective, if less impressive. He's got a curveball (I think) that he throws in the low-mid 80's, which he spotted well. With his stuff, I would expect more Ks than he's featured. He's averaged about 7 per 9 innings pitched since his promotion to AA, but only had four last night. Regardless, for a guy who returned from Tommy John surgery about a year ago, he looks pretty good.

The Sea Dogs didn't look quite as good, committing four errors on the night that led to five unearned runs. Worse, two of the errors were the result of throws that should not have been attempted in the first place. Pitcher Felix Doubront was strong early, facing the minimum of 9 batters on 37 pitches through three innings. After that he struggled with his command, throwing 62 more pitches and failing to get out of the fifth. His defense could have gotten him out of the fifth unscored-upon, but he wasn't without fault. It wasn't hard to notice that what had been 3-4 pitch at bats were becoming 5-6 pitch at bats.

Feel-good story Daniel Nava impressed with his bat (2-4 with a double) and his hustle in beating out a double-play ball. He looks like a guy who could have a future in the game. The other bright spot was Lars Anderson. An uber-prospect who has struggled for most of the year, Anderson hit the ball with authority on Thursday, with a line-shot wall ball double accompanied by a warning track fly out to right field. It doesn't sound like much, but I've seen too many nights this year in which he gathered a walk, a K and a couple of tappers, to not be somewhat encouraged by a couple of hard-hit balls.

Kason Returns

2009-07-01T21:08:00.004-04:00

After three years at higher levels, including a sojourn to the Texas Rangers organization, old friend Kason Gabbard has returned to the Portland Sea Dogs. And it's clear he doesn't belong here.

Gabbard, trying to return from arm injuries, clearly should not be pitching in AA right now. Tuesday night he put in a performance that made even his worst Mr. Hyde outings look Cy Young-worthy. This is the complete record of his start

BB
BB
HBP
K (guy swung at two curveballs in the dirt. He had no business taking the bat of his shoulder.)
BB (score 1-0)
2B (score 4-0)
BB
HR (score 7-0)
2B
HBP

Blake Maxwell mercifully was called upon while Brandon Roberts was being attended to after being hit in the head (he stayed in played the whole game), and he stifled the rally.

Not quite enough fog to obscure the view.

I've never been a huge fan of Kason Gabbard, but he had turned himself into a pretty decent pitcher. This was sad to see. There was no life on any of his pitches, and he had absolutely no idea where the strike zone was. The numbers were boggling.

36 pitches, 9 strikes
Of the 9 strikes, four were taken and five were swings
Of the five swings, two were missed and three went for extra bases

Looked at another way, Gabbard averaged less than a strike per batter, and as many pitches hit batters as resulted in a swing and a miss.

After they were put in a 7-0 hole, there wasn't much hope for the Sea Dogs on this foggy, drizzly night. Jon Still and Josh Reddick each contributed home runs to account for all of Portland's scoring, and after the first inning it was a pretty crisply-played game. But the fall of Kason Gabbard was the story for the evening.

Tazawa

2009-06-04T22:29:00.004-04:00

Tazawa Delivers

I got my first look at the Japanese sensation Junichi Tazawa Tuesday night, and I have to say that my overall impression based on just this one game is positive but somewhat mixed.

First of all, the line was solid: 7 IP, 5 hits. 2 runs. no walks, 3 punchouts.

He was far from overpowering, however, as there were a lot of hard hit balls and more great defensive plays than I'm used to seeing.

His stuff doesn't look overpowering, either. His fastball tops out at about 92, but seems to have some good sinking action on it. He recorded 10 ground ball outs vs. 8 fly outs. He also throws a slider and a curve ball. (Slider AND curve ball? Those crazy Japanese!) Slider in the low-mid 80's and curve in the 70's. He throws the off speed stuff a lot, which I wasn't expecting. According to Soxprospects.com, he also has a forkball with some potential. I know I saw this pitch once (and thought, "Wow! What was that?") - mid-80's with a wicked break. If he can throw that thing for strikes, it'll be a helluva changeup. I don't recall seeing it other times, but maybe it looked different because it went into the dirt.

He threw a lot of strikes, though maybe not the greatest command inside the zone (see prior comment about hard-hit balls). He didn't work too many deep counts in the game. I had him at 100 pitches exactly over seven innings, but I think it was 72 through six, so a crisp 12 pitches/inning.

He's definitely good, and at an appropriate level for his age (22). I'm not sure I see an obvious top-of-the-rotation arm, but I can see him as a mid-rotation guy. And if he can command all the offspeed stuff and throw it for strikes when he needs to, he can definitely keep hitters off balance and perhaps succeed at the top of the rotation, a la Greg Maddux. (Not that I'm comparing him to Maddux, or course. He won't be nearly as good as Maddux, but he's an example of a guy who had lots of success without the plus heat.)

Through 11 starts, Tazawa has thrown 61.1 innings with a 2.79 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.5 BB9 and greater than 3:1 K:BB ratio. He's definitely one of the better pitchers in the EL this year, and I can see him warranting a July promotion to Pawtucket. But I don't think Boston will see much of him before 2011.

Dogs Walk off With a Win

2009-04-11T15:08:00.005-04:00

Bases loaded, two outs, bottom of the ninth. The Portland Sea Dogs and the Connecticut Defenders are tied at two. At bat is Boston's top prospect - one of the top 10 or 15 in all of baseball this year according to most - slugging first baseman Lars Anderson. The crowd is on its feet. The biggest pitch of the night is on its way. Anderson cocks his bat and.....

watches it miss the strike zone! Ball four! Sea Dogs win!

OK, so it's not the most clutchiest-sounding finish for such a dramatic situation. A grand slam certainly would have made (what was left of) the crowd go much more nuts than it did. But a win is a win, and the finish illustrates one of the reasons Anderson is so highly regarded - his patience at the plate. Sure, he's a big strapping kid with lots of power, but there are lots of those kinds of players out there. Anderson realizes that you don't have to hit every pitch out of the ballpark to win games. He's not afraid to take a walk, and this combination of on-base skill and pure power are what sets him apart from the rest. He's 21 years old and already in AA. He's got a bright future ahead of him.

Good seats still available

Also impressing last night was 22-year-old center fielder Josh Reddick. Reddick isn't as big as Anderson, and he's more athletic. Reddick is also much more aggressive at the plate. Contrary to the Red Sox organizational philosophy of being patient at the plate, Reddick rarely walks. However, he has a sweet swing, hits the ball squarely and has surprising power. Reddick was 4-5 with a double and a game-tying home run in the bottom of the 8th. Reddick also has good speed, which enabled him to leg out an infield single with two outs in the 9th, helping to set up Anderson's heroics. Reddick's legs also enabled him to track down a long fly ball off the bat of Connecticut's Bobby Felmy in the sixth inning, saving extra bases.

The Sea Dogs got some good pitching as well. Starter Adam Mills gave up two runs over the first five innings, but he was extremely efficient in throwing only 56 pitches. Also efficient was reliever Richie Lentz. After allowing the aforementioned deep fly ball by Felmy, Lentz overpowered the next five Connecticut batters with his blazing fastball. He recorded five strikeouts while throwing only three pitches out of the strike zone. Reliever Chris Province collected the win by allowing only one baserunner to reach (on an error) over the last two frames.

Top pitching prospect Junichi Tazawa enjoys the Portland weather while charting pitches.

Though it was the second game of the season, the crowd was of the typical April Friday variety, with about 3,000 in attendance. Fortunately the weather was warmer than I expected, with temps in the mid 50's at game time and mid 40's by the time the final run scored. Here's hoping the mild air is the norm this spring!

Return of the Monkee

2009-04-05T20:39:00.002-04:00

I did this thing for a couple of years where I came up with some rudimentary projections of how the Red Sox players will hit during the upcoming season, in order to guess if they will be better or worse than last year. The simple explanation is that I do a weighted-average computation based on the last three seasons stats, with the most recent season weighted the heaviest. Last year I think I skipped this exercise, but it's a new season and I'm ready to give it a go again.

C Jason Varitek (age 37)
472 PA: 220/313/359, 13 HR, 47 Runs Created 2008
481 PA: 236/334/388, 14 HR, 55 Runs Created 2009 Monkee

Varitek's hitting was abysmal last season, particularly when batting left-handed. The Monkee is looking for a bit of a bounceback this season, but a modest one. Lots of people point to Varitek's off-field problems as the reason for his poor season. I point to the fact that he was a 36-year-old catcher who had an awful season with the bat two years earlier. I expect the plate appearances to fall short of this projection, as George Kottaras starts being groomed to take over full time in a year or two.

1B Kevin Youkilis (30)
621 PA: 312/406/569, 29 HR, 120 RC 2008
645 PA: 297/390/500, 21 HR, 109 RC Monkee

Youkilis had a career year in 2008. I hear lots of Sox fans say he's going to build on it and be a true slugger. Maybe he will, but the fact of the matter is that prior to 2008, Youk had never hit more than 29 home runs over the course of two seasons, ever, in his career. The 21 HR projected by the Monkee looks about right to me, with Youkilis's typical solid OBP.

2B Dustin Pedroia (25)
726 PA: 326/372/493, 17 HR, 123 RC 2008
650* PA: 318/369/468, 13 HR, 105 RC Monkee

Pedroia had a breakout season last year, winning the AL MVP award with solid hitting, decent power, and Gold Glove defense. Because the Monkee uses three years of data, Pedroia's abbreviated 2006 stats are included, so I increased the plate appearances to what should be a more realistic figure. The Monkee projects some regression, which is reasonable, but Pedroia is at an age that he could easily continue to improve. If anything, I think the slugging projection is reasonable but that Pedroia will draw more walks and exceed this OBP projection.

3B Mike Lowell (35)
468 PA: 274/338/461, 17 HR, 63 RC 2008
564 PA: 296/354/479, 19 HR, 83 RC Monkee

Lowell missed 49 games last season due to injuries. He appears to be healthy again this season, and though he's getting older, he's also not been particularly injury-prone in the past. So I think the 564 plate appearances are reasonable. Lowell had an exceptional season in 2007, with a .324 BA and .378 OBP that were well above his career norms. Those numbers have inflated the projection a bit. I think the rate stats will be closer to his 2008 actuals, but the additional playing time will be worth an additional win for the team.

SS Julio Lugo (33) /Jed Lowrie (25)
613 PA: 263/344/365, 3 HR, 69 RC (Lugo and Lowrie combined) 2008
452 PA: 256/320/359, 6 HR, 49 RC Julio Lugo Monkee

I admit that there are problems with this projection. First of all, Lugo is injured and Lowrie will open the season as the starting shortstop. Secondly, the Monkee can't really handle projecting a half-season worth of performance, so I have nothing for Lowrie. Suffice it to say that I believe the shortstop position will generate more offense than the Lugo projection above, because if Lugo gets the job back when he returns from injury, he'll have to do better than this to keep the job. Lowrie, who used to seemingly pull walks out of thin air when he played for the Sea Dogs, hit 258/338/400 in his first taste of the majors last season, and I fully expect him to do better than that with additional experience.

LF Jason Bay (30)
636 PA: 297/388/528, 29 HR, 113 RC (Bay and Manny Ramirez combined) 2008
655 PA: 274/364/491, 29 HR, 107 RC Monkee

Jason Bay came to the Red Sox in the beginning of August and basically continued Manny Ramirez' production through the rest of the season. Of course nobody noticed that because Manny went out and hit close to .400 for the Dodgers over the same time period. Bay doesn't hit for the same kind of average as Manny, but I expect him to post a good OBP and the same solid power that this position generated in 2008.

CF Jacoby Ellsbury (25)
609 PA: 280/333/394, 9 HR, 78 RC 2008
650 PA*: 290/341/409, 10 HR, 89 RC 2009 Monkee

As with Pedrioa, I have bumped up Ellsbury's playing time, which the Monkee diluted due to the fact that 2008 was the speedster's first full season in the majors. Interestingly, Ellsbury's ridiculous September of 2007 skews the averages upward to a projection that I think is reasonable for the coming season. Because he is the leadoff hitter, Ellsbury's will want his OBP to meet or exceed this level or he will be a liability.

RF JD Drew (33)
456 PA: 280/408/519, 19 HR, 82 RC 2008
517 PA: 277/392/479, 17 HR, 85 RC Monkee

The oft-injured Drew missed 53 games in 2008. The Monkee expects him to be in the lineup more in 2009 - but only by about 15 games because, as previously mentioned, the man gets hurt a lot. The Monkee expects JD's increase in playing time to be tempered by a drop off in power, as 2008 was his best year since '05 in that area. I think Drew can repeat in the power deparment this year, but my best guess is that his actual rates will split the difference between 2008 and the Monkee projection. I think he'll be worth half a win simply by appearing in the lineup more.

DH David Ortiz (33)
491 PA: 264/369/507, 23 HR, 79 RC 2008
590 PA: 295/408/580, 33 HR, 120 RC Monkee

With the Monkee projecting a 41 run increase in Ortiz' offense (four wins), it's clear that Big Papi's health is a big key to Boston's success in 2009. Ortiz started very slowly and ended up missing 53 games, due a wrist injury and perhaps also residual effects from a sore knee. Many are concerned that Ortiz will continue to struggle as his body breaks down. I think differently. At 33, the big man isn't especially old, and like Lowell he's not historically been injury-prone. I think a decent bounceback can be expected, and while the 50 home run season won't be repeated, 33 dingers is well within his reach.

The Red Sox were second in the American League last year with 845 runs scored (5.22 per game), this despite the fact that Varitek was a black hole, and Ortiz, Lowell, Drew and Manny each missed a third of Boston's season. The raw projections above show +35 runs from the returning players, or 3.5 wins. What's missing from this equation is of course the bench. Coco Crisp in particular grabbed over 409 plate appearances and created 53 runs, filling in the gaps when Ellsbury and Drew were out of the lineup. Much of the 35 run increase projected is simply the result of the core players remaining in the lineup.

But that doesn't mean I think that the offense will lose runs this year. On the contrary: I believe that the projections for Drew, Pedroia and the shortstop position are a bit on the pessimistic side, whereas Lowell and Ellsbury are optimistic but maybe closer to reality, especially with Ellsbury.

Then there is the particular matter of the bench. Last year Kevin Cash "complemented" Jason Varitek with a somehow-worse .647 OPS. This year's backup will be George Kottaras. He's a rookie, but the numbers he put up in Pawtucket (243/348/456, 22 HRs) and his age (26) suggest a guy that will hit major league pitching at a better than .700 OPS. No, his batting average doesn't excite anybody, but he's got a nice combination of discipline and power and I think he will blossom in a part-time role this season.

Secondly, Crisp's replacement as primary backup outfielder this season is Rocco Baldelli. I acknowledge that there are legitimate questions about how much Baldelli will be able to play given his medical issues, but if he's on the field, he's going to produce with the bat. He's never been a strong OBP guy, but he's got real power, and he should easily outproduce Crisp.

Overall, I think there's a very good chance that this lineup is 35 runs better than last season. The standard conversion is that 10 runs = 1 win, so that would mean the Sox will win 3.5 more games this year than last given the lineup. Of course we have yet to look at the pitching (which I think will be better), or the competition (which I think will be better), but the Red Sox definitely look to be poised for another 90+ win season and another trip to the playoffs in 2009.

testing

2009-01-07T19:28:00.001-05:00

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Pedroia Named AL MVP

2008-11-19T19:03:00.002-05:00

The awards keep coming for former Sea Dogs players, as SeaBlog fave Dustin Pedroia followed up his Rookie of the Year campaign by being named Most Valuable Player in the American League. The hard-hitting second baseman led the league in runs, hits and doubles, was second in batting average and 7th in extra base hits, all while turning in Gold Glove defense at the keystone.

Pedroia's final stat line was 326/376/493-17-83. He had 213 hits, 54 doubles, 118 runs scored and 20 steals. He was the third-most difficult player to strike out in the AL, recording just 52 K's in 653 at bats (726 plate appearances). He appeared in 157 games, and his get-your-uniform-dirty style of play, gritty determination and team-first mentality have already made him a leader on the team.

Pedroia beat out Minnesota first baseman Justin Morneau for the award, while teammate (and former Sea Dog) Kevin Youkilis finished third in the balloting. Underappreciated Twins catcher and AL batting champ Joe Mauer came in fourth.

I think that Pedroia took advantage of a weak field to win this year. Make no mistake, he had a great season, but not one on parallel with most MVP winners. He definitely benefitted from injuries to White Sox LF Carlos Quentin (36 HR, 100 RBI before missing the final month of the season) and Texas 2B Ian Kinsler, who had similar numbers to Pedroia but with more power before he got hurt and missed the final month and a half of the season. Morneau, who won the 2006 MVP under similar circumstances, was not quite as good, nor was his team, which probably doomed his chances. Perennial candidate Alex Rodriguez was again terrific - but not by Alex Rodriguez standards. ARod wasn't helped by the fact that the Yankees missed the playoffs for the first time in 14 years.

I thought Pedroia's stiffest competition came from Youkilis (312/390/569-29-115), who stepped up his power numbers this year and demonstrated his value by playing 36 games at third base in place of the injured Mike Lowell. Youk's case was undone because he missed a few games with injury, and his numbers weren't outrageously good for a guy on the corner. Mauer is an interesting case. He hits for a high average, posts great OBP skills, and is a Gold Glover behind the plate. Considering the dearth of good-hitting catchers, he had a strong case as the best player in the league, but he was doomed by his lack of power. 9 home runs just isn't a sexy number, particularly when it's half the number hit by the diminutive second baseman in Boston.

With a Rookie of the Year Award, Gold Glove, All Star game appearance, Silver Slugger and now MVP, Pedroia is on the fast track to being the greatest second baseman in Boston Red Sox history. Hall of Famer Bobby Doerr is probably the only guy ahead of him right now, but Pedrioa definitely has a chance to catch him one of these years. Perhaps I'll expand on that in a future post.

Dustin Pedroia wasn't the only member of the 2005 Sea Dogs to have a great season. SS Hanley Ramirez, now with the Marlins, put up a line of 301/400/540-33-67 with 125 runs scored and 35 steals. That was good enough to place 11th in the NL MVP vote. Boston pitchers Jon Lester and Jonathan Papelbon also had stellar seasons. Lester had a 16-6 record, 3.21 ERA and threw a no hitter, while Papelbon recorded 41 saves and a 2.34 ERA while making the All Star team. OF David Murphy and P Kason Gabbard were starters for the Rangers before each of their seasons was derailed by injury. And OF Brandon Moss became a starter in Pittsburgh after he was traded in the Manny Ramirez/Jason Bay deal.

One final congratulations to Dustin Pedrioa, and here's to another shot at it next season!

Hey Big Papi

2008-07-21T23:01:00.008-04:00

It's the real Big Papi!

I don't know if people in Maine were aware, but Big Papi David Ortiz is with the Sea Dogs for a rehabilitation assignment before returning to the Red Sox at the end of the week.

OK, I guess people did get the memo:

Large Crowds outside

And in

The excitement was as thick as the Hadlock Air has ever seen for the arrival of Red Sox folk hero David Ortiz. When it was announced about two weeks ago that Ortiz, who has been out since the end of May with an injured wrist, would be playing a few games in Portland, all the remaining tickets sold out instantly. The secondary market was commanding $75 for $8 seats - this, mind you, with no actual guarantee that there would be any major league ballplayers on the field given the fickle nature of both the weather and rehab assignments. But the weather held out, as did Ortiz' wrist, and the crowd was treated to the Big Papi show that it paid to see.

Ready to wheel around the bases

Well, maybe not entirely, as Ortiz did not hit a home run, as he had done three times for the Pawtucket Red Sox in recent days. Papi did manage a two-out walk that sparked a four-run rally in the first, a laser shot single to left in the second, a moon-shot popup to second base in the fourth inning, and a broken-bat flare over the second baseman's head for an RBI single in the sixth. Papi was replaced on the base paths by top prospect Lars Anderson following the RBI single and left to a huge standing ovation. Which of course was followed immediately by a mass exodus by a large chunk of the crowd.

The wrist did not appear to be a problem.

The game itself, an 8-2 Sea Dogs victory, had a lot going on. Portland's Dave Gassner, who gave up 10 runs the other time I saw him pitch, managed to get through six with only one run allowed. In addition to Papi and Anderson, several other top Boston prospects were in the lineup. Smooth-gloved SS Argenis Diaz, who was called up at the same time as Anderson, didn't get many opportunities in the field but did manage to get on base three times. OF Josh Reddick made his AA debut count with a two-run single on the third pitch that he saw. And reliever Daniel Bard tipped 99 on the radar while striking out two in an inning of relief. On the Connecticut side, the most notable events were SS David Maroul committing three errors, and starting pitcher Joey Martinez somehow managing to get into the sixth inning despite throwing 49 pitches and allowing six runs through the first two.

All this was secondary to Big Papi, however. Portland fans have two more days to enjoy this before he's back in Portland and the Sea Dogs grind on without him.

Rolling Rally

2008-06-19T13:41:00.005-04:00

A couple of photos from my friend/colleague Meg, who works across from the Garden:

Not baseball related, but fun regardless. Plus, I need a host.

Back to Hadlock

2008-06-17T21:17:00.004-04:00

Tonight, for the first time in a very long time, I drove down to Hadlock Field to catch a Sea Dogs game. Other than seeing my friend Dave (who I can see without driving to Portland), and my co-worker Colin, it turned out to be a wasted trip. Oh, I did show that the old arm can still dial it up to 58 when called upon. So there was that.

Never a good sign

Sluggish Sea Dogs lose to New Hampshire

2008-04-23T20:35:00.002-04:00

Another cold Monday night at Hadlock, but not as cold as the prior one, thank goodness. It was, however, a long, sluggish affair for the Sea Dogs, who lost to the New Hampshire Fisher Cats 9-3 to end their long winning streak.

Michael Bowden was on the hill for Portland, and he turned in an "eh" performance overall. Bowden is a top pitching prospect in the Boston organization, but he's been decidedly mediocre in the games that I've seen. On Monday he featured a nice fastball in the low 90's, but his offspeed stuff was pretty mediocre, with a rolling curve ball that was fairly ineffective. Bowden had the most trouble with burly left fielder Jacob Butler, who tagged him for a two-run homer and a bases-loaded double. Butler finished with four hits on the night, as did right fielder Ryan Patterson, who is ranked as Toronto's #10 prospect by Baseball America.

Toronto's #1 prospect, Travis Snider, made his AA debut in the game. He got a single, but also struck out three times. The young slugger (only 20 years old) was called up from Dunedin after starting the year with four homers and a .557 slugging percentage in his first 17 games there.

Portland's offense didn't show much, other than first baseman Sandy Madera. The brawny Can-Am league reclamation project had two hits, including a double, and two walks on the evening.

Chad Rhoades pitched well out of the Sea Dogs bullpen once again. New Hamshire's Seth Overbey pitched three shutout innings in relief, allowing just two base runners. One was erased on a double play. The other was RF Jay Johnson, who greeted Overbey with a line drive to the gap in right-center, then was tagged out when he fell stricken with an injured leg between first and second base. Johnson was carried of the field by Madera and John Otness and was placed on the DL following the game.

Masterson vs. Bowden

2008-04-22T14:48:00.003-04:00

John Sickels has a "prospect smackdown" between Justin Masterson and Michael Bowden. He projects the two youngsters, currently atop the Portland rotation, both to be #3-type starters in the big leagues.

Masterson has been more dominant than Bowden this year. In fact, the game I saw him pitch was the only time he allowed anybody to score. I saw Bowden pitch last night (more on that tonight or tomorrow), plus a few times last season, and he's overall been less impressive in the games that I have seen. He seems to alternate between putzing around and having truly dominant innings, with middling results. That said, his stats bear out that he has generally pitched better when I am not around. (The Curse of the Sea Blog?) And I have to remind myself that he is still very young for AA (just 21 years old) and holding his own at this level.

(I also have to remind myself that it's not easy to pitch in the cold weather these guys have been playing in thus far.)

I'm going to go with Sickels in saying that Masterson might be more of a sure thing, because he's got this nasty, bat-breaking sinker that will work at any level. Bowden's going to have to develop a bit more polish with his offspeed offerings, because a low-90's fastball that doesn't sink is a little easier for major league hitters to get good wood on. Bowden's changeup and curveball are already pretty good, so the potential for very goodness is there.

Back in the Sea Dogs Way

2008-04-17T20:56:00.003-04:00

There are lots of things going on right now, but the baseball season has started again and I'm back to scoring Sea Dogs games - albeit in a reduced capacity this time around.

My first venture to Hadlock Field came Monday night, a 5-4, 11-inning affair with the Connecticut Defenders in cold, 40-degree weather. This was my first chance to see Justin Masterson in person. Masterson started last year in A Lancaster, where he pitched unreasonably well in the high desert jet stream. Upon arrival in Portland he had a few dominant starts before having a few rough outings to end the season.

Masterson started out well this year, winning the Eastern League Pitcher of the Week Award for the opening week of the season for allowing no runs in two starts. Masterson wasn't quite as dominant on Monday. He allowed two runs on five hits and his first two walks of the season. Regardless, his heavy sinker splintered several bats, and he couldn't have been fun to face in such cold weather. He was a lot better than opposing starter Adam coward, who was shelled in his three-inning stint. The Sea Dogs led 4-2 before Beau Vaughan gave up the tying runs in the top of the 8th, which ultimately sent the game into extra frames.

(Note: while this added a good half hour to the game and was very frustrating at the time, it was nothing compared to Wednesday's game, in which Jose Vaquedano allowed the tying run in the top of the 9th. Neither team scored again for the next 8 (eight!) innings. At 5 hours and 41 minutes, this broke the record for the previous longest game in franchise history.)

The Sea Dogs ultimately ended it in the 11th when two strikeouts were followed by two singles and a walk to load the bases. Iggy Suarez was the hero for drawing a walk-off wild pitch pitch from Defenders reliever Justin Hedrick.

Chad Rhoades impressed with 5 K's in 2 relief innings, and Vaquedano picked up the win with a perfect 11th inning, in which he didn't throw any pitches outside of the strike zone.

Annual Monkee Review

2007-11-18T20:31:00.000-05:00

The Red Sox rode strong pitching and a solid offense to their second World Series Championship in four years. The feeling throughout the season was that the offense in general failed to live up to expectations. Was that true? We here at the SeaBlog have a projection system that we call the Monkee, and it’s time now to see how well the Monkee did at projecting the 2007 Red Sox.

Catcher: Jason Varitek (age 36)
482 PA 267/365/452 17HR 67 RC 2007 Monkee Projection
518 PA 255/367/421 17 HR 70 RC actual

We were looking for a bounce-back season for Varitek following a dismal 2006 season, and the captain did bounce back for a decent season. Before the season I suggested that the Monkee might be a bit optimistic and that turns out to have been the case. The increased walk rate might actually be a big red flag for Varitek, as it could be a sign that he is losing confidence in his swing and looking more to take a walk. His HR total was right on the projection, but his power continued to flag as it did in 2006 (IsoP of .167 vs. .162 in 2006). ‘Tek remained healthy throughout the season, which is a good sign, but his offense is no longer the asset it once was.

First Base: Kevin Youkilis (28)
395 PA 277/381/425 8HR 53C 2007 Monkee
650 PA 277/381/425 13HR 87 RC 2007 Joe’s SeaBlog projection
625 PA 288/390/453 16 HR 100 RC Actual

Youkilis continued to improve at the plate, despite a heavy swoon in the second half. His BA/OBP were basically in line with the projection, but Youk yanked a few extra homers to build up his SLG.

Second Base: Dustin Pedroia (23)
45 PA 191/355/303 1HR 3RC 2007 Monkee
650 PA 280/360/420 10 HR 85RC Joe’s SeaBlog prediction
581 PA 317/380/442 8 HR 91 RC Actual

Since the Monkee had little to work with, we simply made up a projection for Pedroia’s rookie year. Dustin surprised even the SeaBlog in hitting well over .300 on his way to the Rookie of the Year Award. Pedroia’s walk rate was a bit lower than expected, which I think is a reflection of his being a little too patient and falling behind early in the count. When he swings, he tends to put the ball in play - Pedroia was the second-most difficult player in the league to strike out – and fortunately with solid contact. Obviously he has good strike zone judgment, and I think his walk rate will improve as he gains experience.

Third Base: Mike Lowell (33)
611 PA 272/335/447 19HR 83RC Projection
653 PA 324/378/501 21 HR 109 RC Actual

The Monkee wasn’t the only one – I don’t think anybody saw this season coming from Mike Lowell. The steady third baseman took advantage of the friendly confines of Fenway Park and a.337 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which was 50 points better than his career average. In other words, it was a fluke season. But a good fluke to have, as Lowell capped things off by being named Most Valuable Player in the World Series.

Shortstop: Julio Lugo (31)
589 PA 289/346/408 9HR 75RC projection
630 PA 237/294/349 8 HR 63 RC Actual

The Monkee and I were certain that Lugo would be a significant improvement over Alex Gonzalez with the bat. The Monkee and I were wrong. Lugo was the Anti-Lowell, with a BABIP of 50 points below his career norms (.262 vs. .312). Combine this with a walk rate right in line with his career norms and a strikeout rate actually a bit lower than normal, and I see a rebound coming for 2008.

Left Field: Manny Ramirez (34)
611 PA 308/411/608 40HR 127 RC Projection
569 PA 296/388/493 20 HR 91 RC Actual

Manny not being Manny. The BA and OBP were hinted at in the 2005 season, but Manny’s power numbers were far and away the worst of his illustrious career. The silver lining is that the home run swing came back in the post season. Here’s hoping it was lingering injury effects and not a permanent slide in his ability.

Center Field: Coco Crisp (26)
538 PA 285/328/430 12HR 71 RC Projection
591 PA 268/330/382 6 HR 69 RC Actual

Coco Crisp was another guy from whom we were looking for a return to form in 2007, but it didn’t happen. The power stroke that saw him hitting 42 doubles and 16 homers in his last season in Cleveland never appeared. In its place, unfortunately, was a slappy speedster swing from a guy who didn’t get on base all that much. Coco appears to have played himself out of a job after Jacoby Ellsbury hit .353 in 33 late-season games.

Right Field: JD Drew (31)
510 PA 289/408/518 20HR 89 RC Projection
552 PA 270/373/423 11 HR 77 RC Actual

Another guy of whom I was confident that he could at least outperform the guy he replaced (in this case Trot Nixon), but that didn’t really happen. Drew’s BA and OBP were lower than his career norms and about the same that Nixon provided in 2006. While Drew did out-power Nixon, his slugging percentage was well below his career standards, and even then was only salvaged by a September power surge. It is that September performance (4 HR, 1.072 OPS) that has me optimistic for him next year.

Outfield: Wily Mo Pena (25)
327 PA 275/326/499 17HR 48 RC Projection
172 PA 218/291/385 5 HR 16 RC Actual

Uhh, if you include what Wily Mo did following his trade to the Nationals in August, the Monkee doesn’t look so bad. But, no. WiMP was a no-show for the Sox. Thank goodness Jacoby came along and made us forget about him.

DH: David Ortiz (30)
691 PA 294/401/618 49 HR 143 RC Projection
667 PA 332/445/621 35 HR 156 RC Actual

Practically everybody in Red Sox Nation thinks that Big Papi had an off season. This is primarily because both his home run and RBI numbers were down from previous years. This is far from the truth, however. Papi’s batting average and OBP were absolutely huge, and the lumbering DH scored 30 runs more than his closest teammate (Pedroia with 86). The popular conception is that Mike Lowell and his 120 RBI was Boston’s MVP, but it’s really Papi in a landslide.

The 10 projections break out as follows:
Too pessimistic: 2 (Pedroia, Lowell)
Too optimistic: 5 (Lugo, Ramirez, Crisp, Drew, Pena)
About right: 3 (Varitek, Youkilis, Ortiz)

It’s a continuing trend for the Monkee to be somewhat optimistic. Unfortunately, we don’t have the time or ability to figure out where things usually go wrong. In this case, two of the guys were new to Boston this season, two were injured last year, and one guy never got to play. We’ll call it “extenuating circumstances” for all five!

Pedroia Named AL Rookie of the Year

2007-11-13T20:17:00.000-05:00

For the second consecutive year a former member of the Portland Sea Dogs was named Rookie of the Year. This time around it was long-time SeaBlog fave Dustin Pedroia who ran away with honors in the American League, taking 24 of 28 first place votes and easily outdistancing Tampa Bay outfielder Delmon Young.

Last year, Pedroia's former Portland teammate Hanley Ramirez captured the National League honor as Florida's shortstop. A third member of that 2005 squad, Jonathan Papelbon, was runner up in the AL last season.

Pedroia overcame a slow start to finish the season with a 317/380/442-8-50 line. Pedroia held his own in the middle of a veteran-laden lineup. He was third on the team (and 10th in the AL) in batting average, 4th on the team in OBP and second with 39 doubles and 86 runs scored. He didn't draw walks at the same clip we saw from him in the minors, but he did walk more than he struck out (47 vs. 42), indicating good strike zone judgment and an excellent ability to put the ball in play. Pedroia led all qualifying AL rookies in average, slugging percentage, runs scored, doubles and OPS, and he was second in OBP. He also capably handled the leather at second base, exhibiting good range and a strong arm, and committing only six errors.

Two other Red Sox, Japanese import pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima, also received consideration, finishing 4th and 6th respectively.

On Tuesday it was announced that former Sea Dog Josh Beckett had finished second behind Cleveland's CC Sabathia for the AL Cy Young Award. Beckett's chances were done in by Sabathia's 40+ advantage in innings pitched. Ironically, this may have been the difference that allowed Beckett to dominate throughout the post season while Sabathia was hit hard. Boston fans will take Beckett's contribution to another World Championship any day.

Sea Dogs Win World Series

2007-10-29T18:28:00.000-04:00

Rather, a bunch of former Portland Sea Dogs players helped lead the Boston Red Sox to their second World Championship in four years. In a somewhat stark contrast to the 2004 championship squad that featured only two home-grown players (if you exclude Curt Schilling, who took an extended hiatus from the organization and made his name elsewhere), the '07 Champs featured a core of six players who toiled in Portland in recent years. The list includes center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, who called Portland home as recently as five months ago.

This is even better than Portland, guys!

As a fan who first started following these guys during their AA service, perhaps the most exciting thing is knowing that I will be able to follow them for several years and, perhaps, several more championships.

Certainly Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia will combine at the top of the order cause fits for opposing pitchers for some time now. Pedroia has received considerable press in this blog, despite the fact that he was in Portland for less than three months back in 2005. After a slow start that saw him hitting below .200 and sharing time with Alex Cora, Pedroia got hot and stayed that way, finishing at 317/280/442-8-50 in 139 games and the front runner for AL Rookie of the Year. He batted leadoff for much of the second half of the season, but slid easily behind the super speedy Ellsbury for the last couple games of the World Series. Ellsbury got in a couple of games during the summer, then became a fixture in the lineup following a September callup. All he did was hit 353/394/5093-18 with nine steals in 33 games, and set up expectations that he will be the 2008 ROY.

I think Pedroia will be a .300 hitter for years to come, but let me say this right now Red Sox fans. Ellsbury is a great player, and will have a terrific career. But he's not going to hit .350 in the major leagues.

A third former Sea Dog was another fixture in the lineup. Kevin Youkilis, whose Portland tenure predates this blog, played flawless defense at first base and was a solid bat. Famously dubbed "the Greek God of Walks" by Billy Beane, Youk was part of a relentless on-base attack with a final line of 288/390/453-16-83.

Three other ex-Dogs were integral parts of the staff. Two established themselves in the second half of the season. Manny Delcarmen was brought up for good in mid-June and finally settled in as a major league pitcher and provided a solid setup arm. In 44 games, Manny D had a 2.05 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while striking out nearly a batter an inning. Jon Lester's career was derailed in 2006 by a cancer diagnosis. Lester thankfully beat the disease and made a quick comeback this season. The results were mixed on both the major league and minor league level, but in the end he started 11 games for Boston and posted a 4-0 record with a 4.57 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. He made real progress during the year, culminating with a terrific 5.2 IP, zero runs performance in gaining the win in the World Series clincher.

The third former Dog on the staff was the anchor of the bullpen. Jonathan Papelbon had one of the most dominant seasons by any major league pitcher in 2006, but ended the season with an arm injury. The Sox at first planned to make him a starter for this season, then changed their minds when nobody else could establish himself as the closer during Spring Training. Pap was back with a new training regime and careful handling by manager Terry Francona and pitching coach John Farrell. The result was another terrific season: 1-3, 37 saves in 40 tries, 1.85 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and a phenomenal 84 strikeouts in 58.3 innings. Papelbon earned three saves in the World Series and had a legitimate claim on the Series MVP award that was presented to Mike Lowell.

In addition to these six players, many other ex-Sea Dogs made at least token appearances with the eventual champions. Kason Gabbard made several starts before he and David Murphy were traded to Texas. Clay Buchholz made the most of a spot start by no-hitting the Orioles. Brandon Moss, Jeff Bailey and Devern Hansack also saw some action during the season.

Of course there was one other former Sea Dog who played a part in Boston's success this season, but he's not a home-grown guy. Josh Beckett was 8-1 in 13 starts for Portland back in 2001 when the Dogs were affiliated with the Florida Marlins. All he did for the 2007 Red Sox was win 20 games with a 3.27 ERA and establish himself as perhaps the front runner for the Cy Young Award. In the postseason, Beckett won all four of his starts by allowing only four runs in 30 IP (1.20 ERA), striking out 35 and walking only two in the process. Unbelievable.

So Portland celebrates Boston's latest Championship today, one that is even sweeter because of all the guys who played at Hadlock Field over the years.

Bowden is sharp in Sea Dogs victory

2007-06-16T10:23:00.000-04:00

I saw my first game in awhile last night (my busy schedule, Sea Dogs on the road), a nice 9-3 victory for the Sea Dogs over the Akron Aeros. It was a rematch of last season's championship series, and though the teams are quite different now, both have a chance to return to the playoffs this year. The Aeros lead the EL South with a 38-27 record, and while the Sea Dogs are just one game above .500 and 11 games out of first place, they are tied with New Britain for second place in the EL North.

The Portland bats came alive for four home runs, but the story was the best AA performance to date for 20-year-old Michael Bowden. Bowden, who was clobbered last time out in Akron, and who had yet to really show off his potential, was in command from the start last night. He pitched 6.2 innings (his longest AA start) and allowed just three hits and two walks while striking out 8. The only blemish on his outing was in the fourth inning, when Jay Johnson failed to pick up a fliner by Argenis Reyes off the bat, allowing him to reach on a single. This was followed by a stolen base and a fielding error by Iggy Suarez on which Reyes came around to score. Bowden was charged with an earned run, but should have gotten out of the inning unblemished.

Portland hasn't hit a lot of home runs on the season. In fact, coming into last night, Eric Crozier was the only player on the roster with more than two. There is the very strong likelihood that only one player will reach double-digit homers on the season, and even that's tenuous considering the fact that Crozier is simply filling space on the roster and is hitting a meager .224 with one-and-a-half times as many strikeouts as hits. A midseason promotion of Aaron Bates, who has 17 dingers in hitter-friendly Lancaster, could spell the end of Crozier's playing time. So it was quite surprising that for Dogs went deep last night. Dusty Brown charged into second place on the team with his third home run in the fourth, then Zach Borowiak and Bryan Pritz both hit flyballs over the short wall in left during a five-run sixth inning. Pritz' shot was particularly impressive, as it might have traveled 320 feet. Crozier, feeling pressure from Brown, hit a legitimate shot in the 8th for his sixth homer and the final two Portland runs.

Notes:

Bowden was terrific, but it was difficult to get a read for his stuff as the Hadlock radar gun was all messed up. He throws a heavy sinker in the low-90's, which was evidenced by his 9-2 groundout/flyout ratio. I couldn't tell much else about what he was throwing. He tried a couple of curveballs that were well out of the zone and didn't impress much. According to his profile, he has a 12-6 curve, tight slider and plus changeup. Without the radar, however, I couldn't tell much about what he was throwing effectively.
Sloppy play, with five errors committed on the evening. Akron starting first baseman Jordan Brown was charged with a "life isn't fair" error when he lost a throw from third base in the setting sun.
There was also a tough twilight sky, which led to Johnson misplaying Reyes' hit in the fourth inning. The sky was bad enough that a ball landed about 15 feet away from me and I had no idea where it was until it hit the concrete.
Akron CF Trevor Crowe was ejected for arguing strikes in the fifth, which led to four position changes in the bottom of the inning.
Rehabbing major leaguer Cliff Politte started the game for the Aeros, walking one and striking out the side in his only inning of work.
Former Boston pitcher, and current Red Sox minor league instructor Al Nipper was in attendance to watch his young prospect perform.
I forgot my camera, so no pix of one of the top prospects in the system!

Dogs to face Rocket

2007-05-21T20:57:00.000-04:00

The Rocket, Roger Clemens, is scheduled to continue his preparation for his 24th (!) major league season by making a start for the Trenton Thunder against the Sea Dogs this Wednesday. Clemens' return is already a bit of a circus, and I'm sure that the Red Sox/Yankees dynamic of this game will just add to the excitement of the evening. Clemens, of course, signed on with the Yankees a couple of weeks ago when the team, desperate for pitching, outbid the Red Sox for his services by $10 million.

Portland will counter with Clay Buchholz, another top prospect at the other end of his career. Buchholz has been stellar thus far through his first seven AA starts: 39.2 IP, 1.87 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 53 strikeouts vs. just 7 walks. Clemens had a good outing for single A Tampa, allowing one run in 4 IP, and he's on his way to the Hall of Fame, but there's a chance he won't be the best pitcher on the mound on Wednesday.

In other prospect news, Michael Bowden was promoted to Portland last week. Bowden is the #3 prospect in the Boston organization, right behind Buchholz and Pawtucket outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury. A powerful righthander, the 20-year-old dominated the competition in the very hitter-friendly California League. He made 8 starts for Lancaster, throwing 46 innings with a 1.37 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 46 K's vs. just 8 walks. He allowed just one run in his Sea Dogs debut last Friday, and gives the team a strong 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation for the time being.

Four Games in a Week

2007-05-13T21:19:00.000-04:00

I've had a busy schedule this week, so I've been unable to provide my usual immediate commentary following the Sea Dogs games that I've gone to. So, in a nutshell, four games in six days:

Tuesday night:
The Sea Dogs sweep a double header from Trenton. Game one is an ugly affair, with Portland prevailing 11-7. Eric Crozier hits a grand slam in the second inning to give Portland the lead. The bullpen makes things interesting, as Barry Hertzler takes over with the bases loaded in the 5th, and allows all inherited runners to score. The seven inning affair featured 24 hits, 11 walks, a HBP and an error, and lasts 2 hours and 45 minutes.

Game two was much more crisp, with the Dogs winning by a 5-0 score. John Barnes is the newest knuckleballer in the Boston system, and he baffles a Trenton squad that, quite frankly, doesn't seem all that interested in trying to hit his offerings. Barnes is a former outfielder who spent some time in the majors with Minnesota, and he's still quite raw as a pitcher. He only allowed two hits but walked five. Trenton's Kevin Whelan throws three consecutive wild pitches to allow Jed Lowrie to score Portland's third run in the sixth inning.

The Thunder arrived in Portland with a 21-4 record and would leave Wednesday with a 21-8 record.

Friday Night:
This one started out pretty, but ended very ugly. Clay Buchholtz, who is Boston's top pitching prospect, set a Portland franchise record by striking out eight consecutive Binghamton Mets from the second inning through the fourth. Buchholtz displayed an awesome combination of a low-mid 90's fastball and a sharp-breaking curve, with the occasional slider thrown in to mix things up. Buchholtz gave up two runs, one unearned, in 6.2 innings while walking one and striking out 11. It was all for naught, as poor bullpen work and poor defense allowed the Mets to score 6 runs in the final two innings. Bryce Cox relieved Buchholtz in the seventh, but was ineffective in the 8th. After two hits and an error led to a run, Hertzler came on to allow two more inherited runners to score, partly as a result of his own throwing error on a would-be double play. In the ninth, Hertzler seemed to have recovered from an error by Andrew Pinckney, however inexplicably allowed two two-out walks before allowing Miguel Negron to hit a bases-clearing double. Binghamton finished with a 8-5 victory.

The lesson from the game is that four errors will undo the good done by a bunch of strikeouts. Despite the continued failure for the offense and bullpen to support him, Buchholtz has proven to be equal as a pitching prospect to the triumvirate of Papelbon, Lester and Sanchez back in 2005. Through 34 innings of work, Buchholtz has allowed just 22 hits and four walks, while striking out an incredible 34 batters. Despite a 1-1 record, it says here that he'll be in Pawtucket by July.

Sunday Afternoon.
Mother's Day brought Slugger's mom to the park, and some pink jersey's for the home nine, to raise awareness of and raise money to combat breast cancer. Then pink itself was kind of pleasing, but didn't really work with the bright red trim:

Zach Borowiack calls out to the fashion police.

The finale of the series with Binghamton featured more poor fielding and ineffective bullpen work, as the Mets completed the sweep with a 12-6 victory. Starter Andrew Dobies pitched OK, leaving after five innings with a 6-3 lead. Kyle Jackson pitched the 6th and retired the first two batters before a hit batsman, error, and double led to two runs. In the 7th, Jackson worked three walks around a sacrifice and a strikout, before Beau Vaughan came to allow rockets to various parts of the outfield. When the dust settled, all of Jackson's runners had scored, along with three of Vaughan's.

Portland's offense scored what should have been plenty of runs in the games against the Mets, but it's hard to focus on any sort of offensive production when the pitching and defense are so bad. The bullpen is a real problem for this team - they allowed 21 runs in the last three games against the Mets, though 10 of those runs were unearned. Cox and Jackson are supposed to be two of Boston's better relief pitching prospects, but they have been awful thus far. Cox sports a 4.91 ERA, but that belies the fact that he's also allowed 6 unearned runs (to go with 8 earned) and has a 1.77 WHIP. Jackson has a 7.56 ERA, a WHIP around 2.00, and he's allowed 20 walks in 16.2 innings. Barry Hertzler was a star in the Sea Dogs pen last season, and numbers are a little better (3.27 ERA, 1.45 WHIP), but he's allowed five inherited runners to score in just the last two games that I've seen him pitch. These are the supposed best arms in the bullpen. It's hard to envision the Sea Dogs having any kind of success at all without these three turning things around in a hurry.

Ellsbury Recalled, Dogs Lose Thursday

2007-05-05T10:32:00.000-04:00

Ellsbury photo cribbed from Seadogs.com.

The Portland Sea Dogs lost Thursday night to the Bowie Baysox, in what would prove to be the final AA game for top prospect Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury went out in typical style, going 2-4 at the plate with a walk and a stolen base, moving his final stats to 452/518/644-0-13 with 8 steals and 13 runs scored. Ellsbury also showed his ranginess in center field, tracking down any ball that came close by, however it was not enough to avoid a 7-3 Portland loss at the hands of the Bowie Baysox.

In his AAA debut on Friday night, it was more of the same for Ellsbury. 1-4 with two walks and two runs scored. David Murphy, moved to left field and apparently feeling the heat from below with regard to his spot on the organizational depth chart, had four hits in Pawtucket's 11-inning loss.

Back to Thursday night's game, it was a bit of a tough-luck loss for Matt Goodson. Goodson had the Baysox off balance for much of his five innings, striking out 10 with his off speed offerings, particularly a very good changeup. Unfortunately, Goodson's control left him in the fifth inning, as he walked two to load the based for Luis Hernandez. Hernanez delivered his second consecutive RBI single, a liner to left that skipped under Corey Keylor's glove and resulted in four runs and a Bowie lead. Portland was unable to get any rallies going after that point.

Now that Ellsbury is gone, this is a very ordinary Portland team. Jeff Corsaletti is the natural guy to move into the leadoff spot, as he has good speed and draws a lot of walks, resulting in a very good .400 OBP to this point of the season. However, this team needs Jeff Natale (703 OPS) and Jed Lowrie (508 OPS) to start making things happen, because Keylor can't be the only guy hitting in the middle of the lineup, and there aren't a lot of quality bats at bottom of the order. Also, beyond Clay Buchholtz and Charlie Zink, the rotation has been a disappointment. Andrew Dobies and Tommy Hottovey showed some promise after they were called up late last season, but both have ERA's over 6.00 so far this year. Goodson is probably the least touted member of the rotation, but he has outpitched Dobies and Hottovey thus far. The bullpen has also been inconsistent at best so far.

I think there will be a lot of entertaining games to watch this season, but unless a few guys turn it around fairly soon or Michael Bowden get called up to team with Buchholtz for awhile, I don't think this team will put in a strong challenge for the playoffs.

Finally Some Sunshine

2007-04-29T11:21:00.000-04:00

After sitting through the rain and cold on Friday night (and the cold a couple of weeks ago), I along with a few thousand other fans, was finally rewarded with some decent weather Saturday afternoon. The Sea Dogs felt good about the weather, taking their second straight from New Hampshire with a 10-5 victory. Cory Keylor was the star of the show this afternoon, going 3-5 with a home run and 5 RBI. Old friend Charlie Zink was equally strong on the rubber, pitching six shutout innings, allowing only five base runners and striking out five.

Portland faced another of New Hampshire's top pitchers, lefty David Purcey. Purcey's prospect shine has dimmed a bit since he first came to New Hampshire a couple of years ago. He's still a good stuff/poor command guy, though he does seem to have a better handle on his curve ball these days. (He also has slimmed down a bit since he first appeared in the league.) Purcey alternated good innings with others where he allowed Portland hitters to string together base runners. His biggest problem was an inability to handle Keylor.

While Zink was impressive, Bryce Cox was not. This was my first look at Cox, who is listed as Boston's #4 prospect. Cox struggled mightily in throwing strikes, and when he did throw them they were hit hard, even for outs. In 1 1/3 innings, Cox walked three, hit a batter, and allowed three hits, including a towering three-run home run over the scoreboard in left-center field by David Smith. Mike James was called upon to get the last five outs of the game.

Notes:

Jacoby Ellsbury was a bit of a disappointment, getting only one hit (an RBI double) and one walk. Hey, when a guy comes into the game hitting .468, you expect better.
This version of the Sea Dogs is going to bother opposing pitchers. They take a lot of pitches and draw a lot of walks. When aboard, they run the bases aggressively and make things happen with their speed. In addition to Ellsbury, Jeff Corsaletti is a guy who particularly relies on his speed to make things happen. Corsaletti has already shown an ability to lay down a bunt along with avoiding double plays by hustling down the line. It's the variety of small ball that fans find enjoyable.
Case in point on taking pitches - out of 38 batters for the Sea Dogs in the game, only three swung at the first pitch, and only a handful more swung before taking a strike.
New Hampshire CF Dustin Majewski is another speedy guy who takes a lot of walks. However, he hasn't been too successful in hitting the ball when he doesn't walk. Since arriving in AA in the middle of last season, he has nearly as many walks as hits. You can do that if you're Barry Bonds. If you struggle to hit .230 in AA, pitchers won't let you get away with the walks for long.

Dogs Play Despite Rain, Defeat NH

2007-04-29T10:45:00.000-04:00

After causing seven of the first ten home games to be postponed (and the other three to be played in wintry temperatures), mother nature finally cooperated and allowed the Portland Sea Dogs to play the first two games of the latest home stand. Well, sort of cooperated. Friday night's game was played in a steady drizzle/rain and a temperature around 40 degrees, but team officials said, emphatically, "we're playing the damn game!"

The Sea Dogs were undeterred, and overcame the rain and a brief failure of a light bank to defeat the New Hampshire Fisher Cats 6-2. Jacoby Ellsbury was the star of the show, reaching base five times on four hits and a hit by pitch, and scoring two runs. Ellsbury's batting average stood at .468 following the game. Portland faced off against New Hampshire's top prospect (#3 in the Toronto system) Rickey Romero. Romero was OK, though it's tough to make much judgment given the conditions. The lefty featured a 90-mph fastball and a sharp curve. Unfortunately for him, the curve ball often failed to travel the requisite 60 feet, 6 inches, and the balls in the dirt beat up catcher Robinzon Diaz and contributed to a lot of activity on the basepaths from Sea Dogs runners. Diaz didn't help matters much by short-hopping every throw to second. Portland runners finished with three steals, one with an additional advance due to a Diaz error, and two bases taken on wild pitches.

Portland pitcher Matt Goodson was equally OK. I was most impressed by his sinker, which resulted in 10 ground ball outs (one DP) vs. 3 fly ball outs. Portland's bullpen received solid efforts from Kyle Jackson and Beau Vaughan, both of whom pitched two shutout innings in relief. New Hampshire's bullpen struggled, particularly in the bottom of the eighth innings. Zack Borowiak started things off with a single that coincided with the failure of the lights behind the first base dugout. Following a 15-minute delay (that felt like a half hour for those of us sitting in the rain), the Dogs took advantage of a loss of command by Cats reliever Jo Matumoto. Matumoto walked #9 batter Bryan Pritz and allowed a bunt single by Ellsbury before walking in two runs. Tracy Thorpe was then hailed from the bullpen, and he immediately issued another bases-loaded pass, giving Portland a four-run cushion for the ninth inning. Vaughn then dispatched the side without incident.

Notes:

Ellsbury is really impressive, and I don't suspect he'll be in Portland for long. He has tons of speed, and his game is built around it. In addition to his bunt grounder, he had an infield hit in the 6th. He also turns singles into doubles and causes a lot of commotion on the basepaths. He's got some pop in his bat, but I don't think that he'll ever be a big home run hitter. He also covers a lot of ground in center field. He's really a prototype center fielder / leadoff hitter. Ellsbury currently leads Portland in BA, OBP, SLG, runs, RBI, doubles and stolen bases. It's looking like he's too good for this league.
Eric Crozier looked terrible at the plate in striking out four times from the cleanup spot, but he still managed to finagle a walk to knock in Portland's fifth run of the game.
New Hampshire reliever Jean Machi is a dead ringer for Rich Garces and Edgar Martinez, therefore worthy of the nickname El Guapo III.

Prospects on the Sea Dogs

2007-04-23T21:47:00.000-04:00

Between all the rainouts and away games, there's not been a lot momentum at the Sea Blog. I thought I would fill the void by going back to John Sickels' listing of Boston's top prospects heading into this season, and see who is on the Portland roster.

1) Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, B+. Good bat, good glove. Through yesterday's games, Ellsbury was tearing up the EL to the tune of 455/500/705-0-9 with 9 extra base hits and four steals through 10 games. He could play himself up to Pawtucket before the All Star game.

2) Clay Buchholtz, RHP, B+. "Good combination of stuff and command," which makes him sound a bit like Jonathan Papelbon. He's only made two starts for Portland, with a 3.82 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 10/2 K/BB ratio in 9.2 innings pitched.

10) Bryce Cox, RHP, B-. A reliever, but not a closer. He's another guy that I haven't seen pitch. Cox has been effective thus far. He's appeared in four games without allowing a run over 7 innings pitched.

17) Jed Lowrie, 2B/SS, C+. He's got good on-base skills, but disappointed a bit last season. Through nine games, he's hitting 212/270/364-1-3.

19) Jeff Natale, 2B, C+. Another diminutive (5' 9") middle infielder who is surprisingly good with the bat. Just 147/333/176-0-2 through the first 10 games, but the six walks belie good plate discipline. Last year, Natale hit 304/446/469-17-87 with 103 walks between Greenville and Wilmington. At 24, he's a little on the old side for a prospect, but if he continues to hit he'll have a career.

Others of note: OF Jeff Corsaletti (303/395/364-0-6); LHP Tommy Hottovy (6.00 ERA in 9 IP); RHP Kyle Jackson (9.64 ERA with 7 walks in 3.2 IP);

Dogs First Win, part two

2007-04-12T22:00:00.000-04:00

Good seats still available

Above was the scene at Hadlock Field, as a sparse crowd braved the cold temperatures (43 degrees at game time - hah!) to watch the final game of the series between the Sea Dogs and the New Britain Rock Cats. Those few who stayed the full nine witnessed a rather humdrum game won by the Sea Dogs 8-5 for their first victory of the season.

This was a game without a lot of intrigue. Perhaps part of that is because I didn't do my homework to see who on the Rock Cats is a top prospect. Perhaps another part of that is because I am a fan of good pitching, and last night wasn't a good night to be a pitcher. It appeared that the pitchers were struggling to get a feel for their breaking stuff, whereas the wind blowing out made for a small field. The hard throwers could benefit from nerve-jangling inside pitches on a cold night like this, but I didn't see too much of that happening. Neither starting pitcher lasted more than four innings, with Portland starter Andrew Dobies taking to the bench after just three innings and 70 pitches thrown.

In taking a quick look at the New Britain roster, along with John Sickels' list, it appears that there are a couple of decent pitchers on the Rock Cats roster, which makes sense in Minnesota's pitching-rich system. None of these guys (Anthony Swarzak, Brian Deunsing or Jose Mijares) pitched in this game, but one position player (3B David Winfree, #19 on Sickels' list with a "C" grade) started as DH. Winfree had an OK game, with a pair of identical ground ball singles between third and short and a pair of strikeouts on the night.

Portland's top position player prospect was in the lineup of course. Jacoby Ellsbury had a decent game, with two hits (including a double) and an RBI. His double was actually hit pretty softly, while his RBI single was a rocket off the glove of third baseman Gil Velazquez. He's looking good early, and I won't be surprised if he is promoted prior to the All Star game.

Notes:

According to the message board, Velazquez is in his 7th Eastern League season. That's a lot of time in AA - not really good enough to be promoted, but good enough (and versatile enough) to keep a job.
Portland 3B Andrew Pinckney got a lot of action. Sometimes he looked sloppy, sometimes he looked good. I don't suspect he's as good a fielder as Chad Spann was last year, but he seems to have pretty good range. It's hard to tell based on just one game, of course, and a cold one at that.
New Britain cleanup hitter Matt Allegra didn't put a single ball in play all night, with two walks and three strikeouts. He did manage seven foul balls on the evening.
Tough to tell who Portland's closer is supposed to be. Bryce Cox is the top prospect in the bullpen and Kyle Jackson is another highly-regarded reliever. Mike James collected 25 saves in Wilmington last season. So naturally it was big Beau Vaughan on for the ninth inning last night to pick up his first-ever professional save.
The Red Sox update board, in previewing last night's Fenway debut for Daisuke Matsuzaka, boasted the following as the pitching matchup: Dice-K vs. Ichiro.
Finally, the promotion of the year - a lucky fan will win $25,000 in home repairs if a Portland pitcher throws a perfect game during a regular-season game at Hadlock. I'm surprised that they didn't say, "and it can't be a 7-inning game in a double header, either." That's a pretty safe $25,000.

Chilly Win for Sea Dogs

2007-04-12T08:25:00.000-04:00

I was finally able to get to my first baseball game of the year, and it was a happy ending to a cold night, as the Sea Dogs prevailed 8-5. Eric Crozier hit his first Sea Dogs home run to give the team the lead in the fifth inning and the bullpen was able to hold on. According to the box score, the game time temperature was 43 degrees, but it got a lot colder than that as the evening progressed. The saving grace was that there was no precipitation or heavy wind. The game was a bit sloppy, but I think that the weather had a lot to do with that.

I'll post a full report this evening when I have more time.

More Snow / 2007 Sea Dogs Roster

2007-04-08T20:40:00.000-04:00

It's official, game four of the opening series vs. the Connecticut Defenders was wiped out by Thursday's storm and the stubborn refusal of the temperatures to rise high enough to adequately clear the field - much to the chagrin of Sea Dogs and Defenders fans alike. The Dogs will try again Monday against the New Britain Rock Cats.

Meanwhile, we have yet to cover the 2007 Sea Dogs. 11 players return from last year's championship team, including top prospect Jacoby Ellsbury, who will patrol center field for at least the first part of the season. Ellsbury's return was necessitated by a crowded outfield in Pawtucket, which includes Portland graduates David Murphy and Brandon Moss, as well as a couple of major league veterans being stored in AAA in case of emergency. Also on the roster are top pitching prospects Clay Bucholtz and Bryce Cox, who will anchor the rotation. With returning lefties Andrew Dobies and Tommy Hottovy, Portland looks to have a strong rotation entering the season.

Infielder Jed Lowrie is another good prospect making his Portland debut. Among the surprise returnees are two pitchers who moved up to AAA last season: Chris Smith and knuckleballer Charlie Zink. Both have been here for several years before, but like Ellsbury found themselves caught up in a numbers game. As a knuckleballer, Zink still has time to develop, whereas Smith is being converted to a reliever, a role in which he may be able to throw harder than he can in pacing himself for a 100-pitch outing.

A quick review of the roster leads me to think that this year's team has the chance to be very good once again. This is a testament to the strong development system that the Red Sox have implemented in recent years.

And while there was no baseball in Portland this weekend, the Pawtucket Red Sox have begun their season, with strong contributions from Sea Dogs alums Devern Hansack and Craig Hansen.

The 2007 Monkee

2007-04-08T20:27:00.000-04:00

For the third consecutive year, I have performed the overly simplistic calculations that go into my annual Monkee projections for the Boston Red Sox. I am hoping that these projections don’t prove to be overly optimistic for the third consecutive year. Last season’s lineup was plagued by sub-standard contributions from several positions, then finally sunk by the injury that kept slugger Manny Ramirez out of the lineup for the final month of the season. With new players replacing some of the weaker links from last season and a return to form from a few others, the Red Sox are hoping to resume their normal position among the top run scoring teams in the major leagues.

Catcher: Jason Varitek (age 36)
416 PA 238/325/400 12HR 47 Runs Created 2006
482 PA 267/365/452 17HR 67 RC 2007 Monkee prediction

Varitek was the most consistent batter on the Red Sox from 2003-2005. In 2006, however, it looked like age finally caught up to him. ‘Tek suffered a huge dropoff that may have been due in part to injury, in part to his excess workload associated with the World Baseball Classic, and in part to age. At least one of those factors won’t be in play this year, and hopefully the captain can stay healthy. It’s reasonable to predict that Varitek will bounce back somewhat in 2007, but I think the Monkee is a bit optimistic with this line.

First Base: Kevin Youkilis (28)
680 PA 279/381/429 13HR 92RC 2006
395 PA 277/381/425 8HR 53C 2007 Monkee
650 PA 277/381/425 13HR 87 RC 2007 Joe’s SeaBlog projection

Youkilis had a good year at first base for the Red Sox last year, providing an expected solid OBP with little pop and a good glove. His lack of power keeps me from thinking of Youkilis as an asset in the lineup, but one could certainly do worse. Since last season was his first as a full-time player in the majors, the Monkee is pessimistic on this playing time. Youkilis seems to be a pretty durable guy, so I’ve projected out more playing time. I think Youkilis will likely exceed his predicted line, making up for Varitek’s probable shortfall.

Second Base: Dustin Pedroia (23)
703 PA 285/344/361 5HR 77RC 2006 Mark Loretta
45 PA 191/355/303 1HR 3RC 2007 Pedroia Monkee projection
650 PA 280/360/420 10 HR 85RC Joe;s SeaBlog prediction

The Monkee has very little to work with for Pedroia: 98 sub-par plate appearances. Those who have followed this blog for the last couple of years know that I am very high on Boston’s young second baseman, and I think he’ll have a pretty good year. I’ve put in what I think is a realistic and potentially conservative prediction for him. Regardless, I pretty much guarantee that he will provide more offense than Mark Loretta did last season. My pet peeve over the winter was listening to Red Sox fans wonder why the Sox were going with Pedroia, instead of re-signing Loretta and letting Pedroia have another year in AAA. The great misconception is that Loretta had a good year last season, while Pedroia proved that he wasn’t ready for the big show. On count number one, I say bollocks – Loretta did a good job of putting the ball in play, but his punch-and-judy act was no asset to the lineup. On count number two, I also say bollocks. Pedroia hit for a low average, but he put the ball in play and was not overmatched by major league pitching. Furthermore, he had a terrific season at AAA. There is nothing to be gained by having him return to the minors, and there is no reason to think that he won’t provide more offense (and probably better defense) than Loretta did last season.

Third Base: Mike Lowell (33)
631 PA 284/339/475 20HR 92RC 2006
611 PA 272/335/447 79HR 83RC 2007

Lowell had a nice bounceback last year following a disastrous 2005 season in which he hit only 8 home runs for the Marlins. Lowell had a typical Mike Lowell season last year, but the Monkee thinks he’ll fall back a little bit, and I tend to agree. My other pet peeve over the winter relates to people who suggested that Lowell’s second-half struggles are indicative of a continuation of his downward career spiral. In fact, Lowell’s first- and second-half splits almost exactly matched his career norms. I think Lowell will continue to provide a good glove and decent bat from the 6^th or 7^th spot in the lineup in 2007.

Shortstop: Julio Lugo (31)
429 PA 255/294/397 9HR 45RC 2006 Alex Gonzalez
589 PA 289/346/408 9HR 75RC 2007 Lugo projection

Lugo probably won’t provide the same defense as Gonzalez, but the 50-point improvement in OBP will more than offset any potential downgrade with the glove. Lugo will assume leadoff duties for the Sox, and should provide a fine spark at the top of the order.

Left Field: Manny Ramirez (34)
558 PA 321/439/619 35HR 124RC 2006
611 PA 308/411/608 40HR 127RC 2006

Manny was having a tremendous season before a controversial injury basically ended his season in August. He’s a great hitter, and he’ll have another great season with the bat this year, but his erratic behavior is wearing thin among Red Sox fans, this one included. And he has to hit to have value, as he is among the worst fielders in the league. Here’s hoping for 150+ games with a 1,000 OPS and fans again being happy with Manny being Manny.

Center Field: Coco Crisp (26)
452 PA 264/312/385 8HR 50RC 2006
538 PA 285/328/430 12HR 71RC 2007

Coco was another in a string of disappointments with the 2006 Red Sox. Crisp had a great first week of the season, then got hurt and was never the same. Ideally, Crisp will provide decent on-base skills and a fair amount of pop. If he stays healthy, expect something on the order of 85 runs created or better.

Right Field: JD Drew (31)
453 PA 268/373/394 8HR 55RC 2006 Trot Nixon
510 PA 289/408/518 20HR 89RC 2007 Drew Projection

The most controversial signing of the off season was the five-year deal that Boston gave to JD Drew. The oft-injured right fielder is seen as a “soft” player, compared to the tough-as-nails Nixon. I care more about production than having a guy run through a wall, and it’s not like Nixon is any stranger to the DL. Nixon has declined terribly in the last couple of years, and his sub-Gonzo slugging percentage was embarrassing. Drew brings terrific on-base skills and good power, and he should fit in nicely behind Ramirez. If he can stay in the lineup for 140 or more games, he’ll be a huge upgrade over Nixon this season.

Outfield: Wily Mo Pena (25)
304 PA 301/349/489 11HR 47 RC 2006
327 PA 275/326/499 17HR 48 RC 2007

If Drew or any of the other outfielders becomes injured, Wily Mo will be called upon to fill in. If everybody stays healthy, I think the plate appearance projection, and probably the rest of the numbers, will turn out to be optimistic. Wily Mo has intriguing potential, particularly in terms of power. Pena seemed to sacrifice some power for improved batting average last season. I think he’ll find more of a power stroke this year, given the opportunity to hit. He’s a nice insurance policy for the lineup.

DH: David Ortiz (30)
686 PA 287/413/636 54 HR 146 RC 2006
691 PA 294/401/618 49 HR 143 RC 2007

Big Papi had his third straight career year, so the Monkee predicts a bit of a decline for the third straight year, albeit a minor one. Nobody will be disappointed if he puts up the numbers shown above. It would be another monster season from the perennial MVP candidate.

Boston’s success this season depends largely on bounce back seasons from Varitek and Crisp, and better production from Drew, Lugo and Pedroia than was attained by their predecessors. The Monkee sees this happening pretty much across the board: Varitek +20 runs created, Pedroia +8, Lugo +30, Crisp +21 and Drew +34 add up to a whopping 103 runs more than last season. The remainder of the lineup – Papi, Manny, Youkilis and Lowell, all seem to me to be pretty consistent, with Lowell being the most vulnerable of the four. Of course, I said the same thing about Varitek last spring, and he fell off the cliff. Still, I think the lineup will be much improved and, combined with an stronger rotation, will lead to a much improved team in 2007. Later this week, I’ll look at the rotation and wrap up my (almost) pre-season predictions.

Snowed Out

2007-04-06T12:02:00.000-04:00

Put me in, coach!

Baseball season is starting, and the blogging is supposed to be starting as well. Unfortunately for me, two budgets are occupying much of my time and even more of my energy. I have my usual Monkee Predictions for the Red Sox in the pipeline, and Sea Dogs blogging will start up as soon as the season gets underway.

That has been postponed for a couple of days, however, as an April storm dumped over a foot of snow on Hadlock on what was supposed to be opening day. The field conditions made it impossible to get the game in on Friday, and I'm skeptical about Saturday. I was supposed to go on Thursday, and I'm scheduled for Saturday as well, so I might get to catch the Flag Raising ceremony after all.

Once the season gets going, hopefully I'll get back into the swing of this blog.

Dice-K the next Tiant?

2007-03-23T13:08:00.000-04:00

Reports out of Florida regarding the latest outing from Daisuke Matsuzaka are bringing back memories of another celebrated Red Sox twirler, Luis Tiant. Matsuzaka, or Dice-K as he's being referred to, featured a baffling array of pitches that the Pittsburgh Pirates had difficulty identifying, much less hitting, in his most recent spring outing. Dice-K's repertoire is reminiscent of my all-time favorite Red Sox player, Luis Tiant. I'm excited for the season to start.

El Tiante

El Daisuke

Schilling's new blog

2007-03-08T12:30:00.000-05:00

Curt Schilling has joined the blogosphere. He promises to talk baseball and gaming, and whatever else comes to mind. Never one to shy away from offering his opinion, here's a way to get it directly from the horse's mouth.

I plan to chat about a myriad of topics as this blog evolves, from baseball,
teams, players, and umpires, to the media, my family, and my past in and around
the game, all the way to the electronic gaming industry and what I’ve seen, am
seeing, and hope to see from 38 Studios in the future.

The Day 2 post is something that will hopefully be more indicative of the content - breaking down the '07 Sox, and breaking down his own pitching performance. Good stuff.

Thanks to Wisdom Weasel for the link.

2007-03-06T12:06:00.000-05:00

MLB.com has some notes on the minor leaguers currently in Boston's spring training camp. The focus of the article is on former Sea Dog Brandon Moss, who is working on hitting to the opposite field, perhaps in hopes of taking advantage of the Green Monster.

"When you have Fenway in mind, you have a lot of forgiveness in
left field," said Moss. "I'm just trying to stay consistent with going the other
way. At the same time, you don't want to be too focused on that, because then
you lose the other side of the plate."

The new swing paid off with an opposite-field homer against the Phillies.

After spending the last two seasons in Portland, and winning the playoff MVP last September, Moss is slated for AAA Pawtucket this season. Now 23, Moss may be poised to regain some of the prospect status that he seems to have lost since he arrived at the AA level in 2005. He posted a .955 OPS in the Dominican Winter League, albeit in only 14 games, and is off to a good start this spring.

The article also has notes on George Kottaras, Chad Spann, Craig Hansen, Jacoby Ellsbury and David Murphy, all of whom spent time in Portland last season, and all of whom will likely call Pawtucket home in April.

2006 Monkee: In Summary

2007-01-18T00:17:00.000-05:00

In reviewing my predictions for the 2006 season for the Sox, I was off by quite a bit for both the offense and the pitching. On the offensive side, the Sox created 66 fewer runs than the Monkee projected. That's about 6.5 wins. The pitching missed by about 6 wins as well. Overall, the Sea Blog Monkee projections were off by 12 - 13 wins. In my original postings, I said that the projections suggest a 102 - win team, but that I thought they would be closer to 95. The Red Sox ended up with 86 wins on the season. Adding back those 12 that the projections missed by, you get 98 wins, which is squarely in the middle of my range of 95-102 wins predicted for the Red Sox. Which is a convoluted way of my taking some solace in the fact that, while the actual predictions for player performance were far off, my conclusion derived from that faulty data was correct. Had the players played up to the forecasts, the Red Sox would have returned to the playoffs, as I predicted.

Now, if I can just find a way for them to actually play up to my expectations....

Pitching Review

2007-01-17T21:41:00.000-05:00

A few weeks ago, I reviewed my preseason forecasts for the Red Sox batters. I also did a forecast for the pitching prior to the season, and I suppose I ought to review that as well. The major problem here is that The Hardball Times has once again changed its pitching metrics, including one that I focused on in the preseason. Fortunately, they re-cast the prior year stats, so I still may be able to make a comparison.

Curt Schilling 31 GS, 204 IP, 15-7, 3.97 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 104 Pitching Runs Created (PRC). For the preseason forecast, THT used a pitching runs metric that showed pitching runs against an average baseline. Now they've attempted a bottoms-up metric that compares with Runs Created for batters. Hopefully they are happy with it, because it's becoming a burden to my forecasts! That said, I predicted Schilling to go from a -10 to a +30, or a four-win improvement. By the updated measures, he went from 31 PRC to 104, which is a seven-win improvement. My prediction was off by a few wins, which is really as much of a function of the 111 additional innings pitched as it was a function of his performance. Schilling was a bright spot in the rotation.

Josh Beckett 33 GS, 204.7 IP, 16-11, 5.01, 5.22 FIP, 77 PRC.
The good news is that Beckett set career highs in starts, innings pitched and wins last season. The bad news is that he had stretches of being an awful pitcher. Other than his remaining healthy, 2006 was not a good season for Josh Beckett. I suggested that Beckett was replacing Bronson Arroyo, and would be 2.5 - 3 wins of an improvement. Arroyo came in at 66 PRC in 2005, so Beckett was an upgrade, but only by about one win.

David Wells 8 GS , 47 IP, 2-3, 4.98 ERA, 5.52 FIP, 15 PRC.
This is what I said: "Wells is very consistent. Like Beckett, he has injury concern, and his back or his knees are likely to have him miss a couple of starts. Even at age 43, however, I see no reason to expect anything less than about 30 starts of league-average (or better: the 2005 season was one of the worst of Wells’ career) pitching, just like last year." And I was completely correct - David Wells did have injury concerns last year. I was looking for "about the same", meaning ~ 68 PRC in 2006. Wells missed that to the tune of about five wins, and his replacements were no better. The best than can be said about Wells last year was that he netted catcher George Kottaras in an August deal with the Padres.

Matt Clement 12 GS, 65.3 IP, 5-5, 6.61 ERA, 5.56 FIP, 17 PRC
From the frying pan into the fire. Quote: "Like Wells, I’ll venture that Clement will give us more of the same or better in 2006." Correct again. Like Wells, a precipitous five-win drop from 2005.

Tim Wakefield 23 GS, 140 IP, 7-11, 4.63ERA, 5.05 FIP, 52 PRC
The third unanticipated injury of the year. Wake missed a couple of months, and wasn't as good as the previous year when he pitched. The 52 PRC was down from 88 in 2005, or about three and a half losses.

Between Wells, Clement, and Wakefield, my Monkee predictions were off by about 14 wins. However, one needs to account for all of the starts lost to injury. Those starts were taken, for the most part, by Jon Lester (34 PRC), Kyle Snyder (18), Kason Gabbard (12), Lenny Dinardo (8), Jason Johnson (6) and David Pauley (4). That's a grand total of 82 PRC, about 8 wins, though much of Snyder's value was achieved in the pen. I boldly predicted that Schilling and Beckett would be worth about +7 wins this year, and I was spot on. The other guys I thought would be level with the prior year, yet they were -6.

The bullpen is harder to figure, with lots of moving parts. I predicted that the pen would be better than the prior year, but it was a tentative prediction. I guess I was probably right, just going by PRC, because Jonathan Papelbon had such a lights-out season (97 PRC). Nobody else really lived up to expectations, however, so that's tempered. I also need to take Papelbon's PRC with a grain of salt when translating it to wins (that's 9-10 wins attributable to Paps, going by the generally accepted runs/wins factor), because there are a lot of situations that a closer pitches in where a run or even two does not impact a win. So, they were better because they had a solid closer, but overall the pen disappointed in 2006 as it did in 2005.

Prospect School

2007-01-12T16:20:00.000-05:00

The above link takes you to an article at Minorleaguebaseball.com that talks about a two-week "Prospect School" that helps top prospects prepare for their life one day as a major leaguer. For a few guys (Hansen, Pauley, Gabbard, Murphy), some will be redundant as they have all spent time in Boston. The rest are expected to be there by the end of the 2008 season. Everybody other than Nick Debarr and Clay Bucholtz was in Portland at some point last season, though most have moved on. Bucholtz is slated for the Sea Dogs rotation in 2007, but he's considered a potential ace and could move up quickly. Debarr was a Rule 5 draft pick from Tampa who has not pitched above single A. He needs to remain on the major league roster or be offered back to the Devil Rays, so he won't be on the Portland roster without a trade taking place.

Jim Carrey's nephew, Clay Bucholtz

2006 Monkee review

2006-12-19T20:22:00.000-05:00

It’s the season of good cheer, and what better thing to do than an exercise that will surely require some charity from the audience. That exercise is called Evaluating the Monkee. Prior to the season, I do performance predictions for the Boston Red Sox based on a simple spreadsheet that I developed (though the methodology was derived from many other basic systems that I have seen). The Monkee proved to be a bit optimistic in 2005, and I suspect that we’ll see that to be the case again this year.

Catcher: Jason Varitek (age 34)
534 PA 284/370/491 21 HR 84 Runs Created 2006 Monkee Prediction
416 PA 238/325/400 12 HR 47 RC Actual

Last year the Monkee nailed Varitek almost to a T. This year was different. For one thing, ‘Tek got injured and missed a fair amount of time. For another thing, he just wasn’t all that good before his injury. The lone bright spot – Isolated Discipline of .087 vs. the Monkee prediction of .086. OK, so he walked like he was supposed to. BA and power were way down, however.

First Base: Kevin Youkilis (27)
550 PA 265/378/409 12 HR 69 RC Monkee
680 PA 279/381/429 13 HR 92 RC Actual

Youkilis was in the lineup quite a bit more than I expected him to be. He outpaced the Monkee prediction by just a bit, which I predicted based on his age. His walk rate was down but his BA was up, which accounted for the increase in slugging percentage. Overall, Youk was pretty much what we expected him to be in 2006.

Second Base: Mark Loretta (34)
584 PA 311/374/430 9 HR 83 RC Monkee
703 PA 285/345/361 5 HR 77 RC Actual

That’s not good predicting, nor good hitting right there. Despite getting 120 more PAs than the Monkee expected, Loretta actually created fewer runs than anticipated. He fell short in every area, particularly the power numbers. Loretta’s 2003 and 2004 seasons were clear aberrations for power given the context of his career, and they held a big sway in the 2006 prediction. I expected Loretta to be a clear upgrade in the lineup, but he barely outhit Mark Bellhorn’s 688 OPS from 2005, and Bellhorn combined with Tony Graffanino for a 727 OPS that season. Loretta simply no longer has that power, and the Monkee missed his OPS by just under 100 points.

Third Base: Mike Lowell (32)
589 PA 265/337/447 19 HR 80 RC Monkee
631 PA 284/339/475 20 HR 92 RC Actual

Mike Lowell also exceeded his projected playing time, which in this case was a good thing. Lowell’s BA and SLG were better than expected, though his OBP suffered a bit from a lack of drawing walks. Call this one a win for the Monkee.

Shortstop: Alex Gonzalez (29)
540 PA 250/297/404 14 HR 59 RC Monkee
429 PA 255/299/397 9 HR 45 RC Actual

The Monkee was pretty spot on with Gonzalez. It didn’t expect much and didn’t get it. Gonzo got injured and missed his playing time prediction, which didn’t help because Alex Cora also had a sub-700 OPS.

Left Field: Manny Ramirez (34)
660 PA 305/399/599 43 HR 133 RC Monkee
558 PA 321/439/619 35 HR 124 RC Actual

Manny being Manny. Other than the time he missed to injury, Manny had his best season with the bat since 2002, when he also missed time due to injuries. If he’s OK being in Boston, he will continue to hit.

Center Field: Coco Crisp (26)
688 PA 293/391/438 15 HR 94 RC SeaBlog Monkee
688 PA 293/332/438 15 HR 94 RC Corrected Monkee
452 PA 264/317/385 8 HR 50 RC Actual

Ah, if strikeouts were only walks. The Monkee got into some bad bananas, resulting in the swapping of BB with K in the original calculations last spring. The corrected Monkee shows a more realistic outlook for Coco’s OBP for the 2006 season. Unfortunately, that doesn’t make up for the fact that Coco fell well short of expectations when he was on the field. He injured his wrist early in the season, causing him to miss a bunch of time, and the wrist may have impacted his overall numbers. Center field was a big problem for the 2006 Red Sox.

Right Field: Trot Nixon (32)
475 PA 290/371/493 17 HR 74 RC Monkee
453 PA 268/373/394 8 HR 55 RC actual

Right field was another big problem for the Sox. Nixon managed to stay on the field about as much as I predicted (I adjusted the Monkee up from 388 PA), however he was completely devoid of power. His 8 HR were less than half expected of him, and his slugging percentage was bested by the anemic Alex Gonzalez.

Right Field: Wily Mo Pena (24)
250 PA 252/306/489 15 HR 34 RC Monkee
304 PA 301/349/489 11 HR 47 RC Actual

Wily Mo was expected to spend most of his time platooning with Nixon in RF, but he wound up playing a lot of time in CF when Coco got hurt and LF when Manny was out. Pena got his batting average and OBP up to career highs, but sacrificed some power to do so. Overall, however, his production was better than expected.

DH: David Ortiz (30)
656 PA 298/387/602 42 HR 131 RC Monkee
686 PA 287/413/636 54 HR 146 RC Actual

I expected a bit of a decline from Papi, but he actually took another step forward in 2006, hitting for more power and more discipline. Hard to improve on a monster prediction, but Ortiz managed to do so.

Out of 10 guys projected, the Monkee was actually pretty close on five of them (Youk, Lowell, Gonzo, Manny and Ortiz). While most of those guys were actually better than the Monkee predicted, none of them did so by a wide margin. On the other hand, of the five guys that the Monkee missed (Varitek, Loretta, Crisp, Nixon, Pena), only Wily Mo exceeded expectations, while the other five fell way short, particularly in their power numbers. Some of that was unexpected losses in playing time, but mostly it was due to poor hitting in general. In the end, a team that I picked to score 900 runs fell 80 short of that mark.

I’m not sure how I might tweak the Monkee for next year. It’s missed on power quite a bit over the first two years that I have used it. Some of that may be due to the age of the players in question (‘Tek, Nixon and Loretta are al in their mid-30). But I also suspect that the sample size is too small to come to any real conclusion on the use of the Monkee as a prediction tool. So, since it’s easier to do so, I’ll probably just leave it alone.

Former Sea Dog Wins ROY

2006-11-15T20:19:00.000-05:00

Former Portland Sea Dog shortstop Hanley Ramirez was named National League Rookie of the Year following a stellar season with the Florida Marlins. Ramirez edged out Washington Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman. Ramirez won the award by proving himself to be a prototypical leadoff hitter: 292/353/480-17-59, 51 steals and 119 runs scored. Ramirez' power numbers were bolstered with 46 doubles and 11 triples.

Ramirez was one of an unprecedented six Marlins to receive votes for the award. Ramirez was one of three members of the 2005 Sea Dogs to receive votes this year. Teammate Anibal Sanchez (10-3, 2.83 in 17 starts) received one third place vote in the NL race. Boston's Jonathan Papelbon (4-2, 0.92, 35 saves) finished second to Justin Verlander in the AL voting, however his late season injury squashed any real chance for Paps to win.

Ramirez' terrific season comes as a bit of a surprise to me. For years he was the #1 prospect for the Red Sox, but he had a so-so season (by which I mean, he didn't have a breakout year) with the Sea Dogs in 2005, and was passed on the prospect list by several players, and he was subsequently traded in the Josh Beckett deal. I wrote many times in this blog that I thought Hanley was still going to be a top-notch big leaguer, despite the fact that his star had lost luster. That said, I thought that the jump from AA to the major leagues would lead to some struggles this year. Not so, as Hanley overcame a midseason slump to have, by some measures, an historic rookie year.

The ROY vote also reaffirms the strength the level of play in the Eastern League. Along with Ramirez, Papelbon and Sanchez, several other players receiving ballots were in the league last season. I saw Papelbon face off against third-place finisher Francisco Liriano of the Twins last June, in what would prove to be one of the worst games either pitched all that season. (You'll notice that I was no better that day, referring to Liriano as "Felipe." Whoops!). Verlander also passed through the EL in 2005, playing a handful of games for Erie, though I don't recall him pitching against the Sea Dogs. And Baltimore's Nick Markakis, who finished 7th in the AL, spent a month in Bowie, though again I don't believe he played against the Sea Dogs. (I could probably check this, but I choose not to at the moment.) On the National League side, Zimmerman spent a chunk of 2005 with the Harrisburg Senators before tearing off to Washington. San Francisco's Matt Cain, the 5th place finisher in the NL, gets an honorable mention, as he was with Norwich in 2004.

So congratulations to Hanley Ramirez and the other former Sea Dogs and EL players who did so well in the Rookie of the Year voting. And remember the quality of play in the league when you are considering whether to go to the ballpark next summer. You might just have a chance to see the 2008 Rookie of the Year playing in person!

Eastern League Champions!!!!

2006-09-17T17:01:00.000-04:00

They wouldn't put it on a message voard if it wasn't true

The Portland Sea Dogs won their first-ever Eastern League championship with an 8-5 victory over the Akron Aeros on Sunday afternoon. Devern Hansack was masterful for eight innings on the mound, allowing three runs while striking out 8 and not walking any batters and cruising to the victory. The Aeros scored two runs in the 9th for the third day in a row, but this time the Sea Dogs had a safe five-run cushion and held on for the victory.

Celebrate!

The Sea Dogs took control of this game early, with four run rallies in both the second and third innings. Following Saturday's game, in which the top of the order did all the damage, this afternoon it was the 5-9 hitters leading the way. Chris Durbin, Bryan Myrow and David Bacani each scored two runs, with Myrow striking a two-run homer in the second and Bacani drawing two walks and scoring from second with aggressive baserunning on Jacoby Ellsbury's infield single in the second inning. Shortstop Keoni De Renne struck the decisive blow with bases-loaded triple in the bottom of the third. The Sea Dogs took advantage of one of the "facts of life" of minor league baseball, wherein Akron ace Adam Miller (15-6, 2.75 in the regular season) had reached an innings limit set by the Indians and was not allowed to pitch the finale. The Sea Dogs took advantage of replacement starter Ronald "Bear" Bay, who allowed 8 hits and three walks in just three innings pitched. Reliever J.D. Martin was nearly perfect in relief, surrendering just one walk while striking out six in four innings pitched.

The crowd was much more subdued than the prior two evenings. Friday and Saturday nights featured large, festive crowds anticipating a Sea Dogs championship. However it appears that the heartbreaking nature of the two Portland losses took the enthusiasm out of the crowd, and there was a much smaller turnout this afternoon, with an announced attendance of 3,937. Combined with the big early lead opened up by the Sea Dogs, the atmosphere resembled more of a typical midsummer game than a playoff contest, at least until the patented last-inning rally. After that it was party time.

Hoisting the trophy.

Brandon Moss was presented with the MVP trophy. Moss had a quiet game five, with a single, a walk, and reaching on an error, but he had five homers and 10 RBI for the playoffs, including three home runs in this series. Hansack, who had two wins in the finals and allowed just three runs on 11 hits (with no walks and 14 K's) would have been anther fine choice for the trophy.

Another Heartbreaking Loss

2006-09-17T09:01:00.000-04:00

For the second consecutive night, the Portland Sea Dogs bullpen gave up two runs in the 9th inning to send the Akron Aeros to victory in the EL Championship series. All the marbles will be decided this afternoon at 1:00 p.m.

The Sea Dogs had a nice rally from a 4-0 deficit, led by two more home runs by Brandon Moss, who now has 5 HR and 10 RBI in the postseason. Moss, who turned 23 yesterday, has been a man posessed. Unfortunately, so has Aeros 2B Brandon Pinckney, who had his second consecutive four-hit game, and drove home the tying run in the top of the 9th with a single that sent leadoff hitter Trevor Crowe to third base and set up Ryan Goleski's game-winning sacrifice fly.

The late-inning collapse was disappointing, but it was equally disappointing that a few mistakes by Portland earlier in the game were equally costly. A potential rally was quashed in the second when Luis Jimenez channeled the spirit of Kevin Millar and was thrown out by about 20 feet in trying to advance on a Dusty Brown single to left field. In the third inning, Portland second baseman David Bacani dropped Crowe's popup, which resulted in a two-base error and set up an RBI single for Goleski. In the 4th, old friend Jared "the Wicket" Sandberg hit a pop fly to right that either Bacani or Jimenez might have caught had they not collided. One hit later, #9 hitter Wyatt Toregas hit a three-run blast over the left field wall for a 4-0 lead.

And while I don't want to get into the habit of second-guessing the manager, there were a couple of quirky moves that I don't necessarily agree with. First is the handling of the bullpen. For the second night in a row, Todd Claus removed a pitcher who had thrown two effective, and very economical innings to bring someone else in for the 9th. On Friday night, it was Barry Hertzler who had retired the Aeros on 16 pitches who was removed in favor of Brett Evert, who proceeded to allow hits to the first three batters he faced. Last night, Kyle Jackson threw 17 pitches to retire five batters (six outs) before Claus brought in Hertzler in the 9th. Hertzler got ahead of #8 batter Alex Ochoa, then threw four straight balls for a walk. After Ochoa advanced on a ground out, Claus ordered a walk of leadoff hitter Crowe, which served to both put the lead run on base and bring up pistol-hot Brandon Pinckney. As reported above, the move backfired.

It's too bad that the Sea Dogs lost a game that they by all rights should have won, but they have one final chance this afternoon at 1:00 p.m. I'm going to that one, too, but I've changed my luck with box seats in Section 110. Portland's luck is going to change, too. Staff ace Dervern Hansack will be on the mound for the Sea Dogs. Hope to see you there!

Sweep bid falls short

2006-09-16T16:22:00.000-04:00

About two feet short, to be more precise. That's how close "L'il Papi" Luis Jimenez came to emulating his namesake and sending the Sea Dogs to victory on Friday night. Jimenez hit a towering fly ball on a 3-2 pitch from Akron Aeros pitcher Tony Sipp to the deepest part of Hadlock Field, only to see Aeros center fielder Trevor Crowe reel it in right in front of the 400 foot marker. Jimenez was attempting to save the day after the Sea Dogs allowed two runs in the top of the 9th and send Portland to its first-ever Eastern League championship. Following Chris Durbin's strikeout, Akron had a 6-4 victory and fans were sent to the ticket offices to buy seats to tonight's game four.

The game was hardly an thing of beauty, featuring five errors, three hit batsmen and 22 men left on base. Neither starting pitcher made it through the fifth inning, and the Akron bullpen gave away a lot of free baserunners with wild pitching to allow the Sea Dogs to crawl back to a 4-4 tie, before Brett Evert returned the favor and the lead in the 9th. However, the stands were packed (a Sea Dogs playoff record attendance of 7,195) and vocal, and a true playoff atmosphere persisted. Brandon Moss hit his third homer of the playoffs and added an RBI single to lead Portland's offense, while Akron was paced by second baseman Brandon Pinkney (4 hits, 2 runs) and DH Brian Barton (3 hits, 2 RBI, 2 stolen bases).

Game 4 is tonight at 6:00 pm. I'm off to the game shortly, otherwise I'd have a more complete post for Game 3.

Dogs Grasping for the Golden Ring

2006-09-15T08:46:00.000-04:00

The Sea Dogs are one win away from their first Eastern League championship, having defeated the tough Akron Aeros in both games at their home stadium. Now the Sea Dogs return to Portland and Hadlock Field, where they will have three opportunities to win one more game for the title. I'll be at Game 3 tonight, and hoping they can close out the sweep. I'm playing the rest of the series by ear.

EL Playoffs - Dogs defeat Dinosaur.

2006-09-09T00:06:00.000-04:00

Dobies pitches, Kottaras catches

Good news - I was able to go to a Sea Dogs game, and I have the opportunity to write about it. Unfortunately my busy schedule has me neglecting this and my other blogs lately, for which I apologize, because I don't enjoy having orphan blogs out there. I have been to a few games lately, but never found the time to write about most of them.

Tonight, however, I was able to attend game three of the EL North playoff between the Sea Dogs and the Trenton Thunder. Trenton, the Yankee's AA affiliate (and therefore top rival for the Sea Dogs) captured the EL North regular season title, setting up a rematch-in-reverse of last year's playoff, in which the Sea Dogs enjoyed the home field advantage. Portland managed a split in Trenton, which gives them the chance to win the series on their own field.

Minor league playoff games are, somewhat paradoxically, usually not well attended. The reason for this, I believe, is twofold. Number one, kids are back in school. Number two, you can't really plan for a playoff game until fairly late. It's easy to look at the regular season schedule and plan a few games that are convenient. For the playoffs, you have to be available on short notice. Often the Sea Dogs will play to a full house through the summer, then be left with a half-full stadium in the playoffs.

Not so tonight, however. In addition to the usual Yankees / Red Sox rivalry, word came that Yankees star outfielder Hideki Matsui would be continuing his injury rehab in Portland. "Godzilla," as he is known, has been out four months after injuring his wrist in a game against the Red Sox in May. Because no other Yankee farm club continues to play, Trenton is the only place for him to rehab. His appearance drove a large gate (6,157, the second-largest playoff crowd in Sea Dogs history), and there were more than a few fans dressed in Yankee regalia roaming Hadlock Field.

Matsui

Matsui played DH and batted fourth. There was a loud mixture of cheers and boos when Matsui first stepped to the plate in the top of the first, and he was retired on a solid line drive to second base. The boos got louder as the game went along, but that was the last time Matsui would be retired, as he collected a solid single along with two walks on the night. He didn't figure in any of the scoring, however. Not for the Thunder anyway. Matsui's appearance in the lineup caused a domino effect that resulted in hulking, slugging first baseman Shelly Duncan playing in left field. Duncan's obvious discomfort with the position contributed to Li'l Papi's eighth inning double that brought home Brandon Moss with the eventual winning run in Portland's 5-4 victory. The Sea Dogs now lead the series 2-1.

It looked like a slugfest at first. The Sea Dogs had three runs and a man on second before starting pitcher Matt Childers recorded an out. Childers settled down and allowed just one more run in 6.2 innings pitched. Moss and Jacoby Ellsbury hit identical shots into the RF Pavilion seats for home runs in the first and second innings, respectively. New Sea Dogs catcher George Kottaras, who was received from the Padres in the David Wells trade, made his Hadlock debut a successful one with an RBI double in the first preceding Moss' homer. In fact, the top four in the lineup (Ellsbury, Kottaras, Moss and Jimenez) combine to go 6-14 with all five runs scored and RBI, two walks, three doubles and two homers on the night. The rest of the lineup was 2-16 with a double.

Andrew Dobies started for the Sea Dogs, and was effective if not overpowering. The Thunder had men on base all night against him - he allowed 7 hits and 2 walks in 5 IP - but he managed to allow only two runs to cross the plate on mostly soft-hit balls in the second inning. Dobies is a stereotypical junk lefty - not a lot of heat but he throws strikes and keeps batters off balance with a high-80's fastball and a bunch of offspeed stuff. He did have a nice strikout of Ruiz on what looked like three cutters in the dirt. Edgar "El Guapo Jr." Martinez made things intresting in the 9th, allowing two runs, but got Ruiz on a flyout with the tying runner at second base and Matui on deck to end the game.

I won't be able to attend the Saturday game, but if the Dogs win the series I hope to catch a game or two of the finals next week.

Dinardo, Dogs come up short in Comebacks

2006-08-23T21:58:00.000-04:00

Lenny DiNardo was in Portland for a rehab start Tuesday night and didn't look to be ready to help out in Boston anytime soon. DiNardo, who has been out since May with a strained back, was completely ineffective in a 52-pitch, two inning outing against the Binghamton Mets. He started out, ominously, with a four-pitch walk to Wilson Batista. While DiNardo got out of that inning with a DP, things didn't go so well in the second.

Jay Caligiuri started with a single after lining several foul balls down the third base line. Two bunt singles followed before DiNardo punched out the K-tastic Corey Ragsdale (EL-leading 173 strikeouts) swinging. This brought up light-hitting catcher Joe Hietpas, who entered the game with just 8 extra base hits and a BA in the .170's in about 220 PA's between AA and AAA on the year. Hietpas promptly launched a fly ball high off the CF scoreboard for a grand slam. After two more singles and a force out, cleanup hitter Michel Abreu, who leads the EL with a .332 BA, followed suit with a three-run blast. That was pretty much it for DiNardo. He didn't have good control, didn't miss any bats and gave up a lot of hard contact in his two innings of work.

Originally-scheduled starter Devern Hansack came in and settled things down for Portland with 7 innings of four-hit pitching, including 7 strikeouts. The Sea Dogs rallied for three in the fifth, courtesy of a bases-loaded throwing error by pitcher Bryan Edwards, and two more in the 8th on Brandon Moss' two run pinch-single, but they couldn't scratch across the tying run and fell 7-6.

Notes:

Abreu is a rare ballplayer from Costa Rica. I read today that there is little baseball played in that country because there was never an occupying force of US Marines there. Most of the baseball played in the country is by migrant workers from Nicaragua. As far as I can tell, no Costa Rican has ever played in the majors. However, all major league baseballs are manufactured there.
Jacoby Ellsbury looks like the real deal to me. Rated the #1 Boston minor leaguer by Soxprospects.com, Ellsbury is an exciting player to watch. He hits for a high average, controls the strike zone, has good gap power and is a terrific baserunner. He's also a first-class ballhawk in center field and appears to have a strong arm. He's making a quick run through the Sox system, and my bet is he'll be in Fenway by 2008 at the latest.
Congrats to Dustin Pedroia, who made his major league debut last night. I've loved this kid since I first watched him play in April of 2005, and I expect big things from him. I hope to have more on him in the next couple of days.

No-no Caps Sweep

2006-07-24T22:50:00.000-04:00

Miguel Pinango put an exclamation point on Binghamton's four-game weekend sweep of the Sea Dogs with a seven-inning no-hitter in the nightcap of Sunday's double header. The Mets right hander didn't appear to be overpowering, however he changed speeds, hit his locations and kept the Portland batters off balance all afternoon. Pinango came within two outs of a perfect game before Matt Van der Bosch reached on a questionable error charged to shortstop Corey Ragsdale. Apparently the ball throw drew the first baseman off the bag, allowing the speedy VDB to reach, however I've seen much more egregious misplays be scored as a hit. Nonetheless, Pinango was masterful, allowing just one hard hit ball (a liner to center by Chad Spann in the 7th) and striking out seven. Center fielder Carlos Gomez, the BMets' top prospect, preserved the no-hitter with a diving catch of a flare off the bat of Jacoby Ellsbury leading off the 7th, the only real threat by the Sea Dogs other than the error.

Pinango warms up.

Pinango apparently was once a bit of a prospect for the Mets, but had Tommy John surgery and is on the road to recovery. Following yesterday’s game, his stats this year are in line with his pre-injury numbers (ERA in the mid-3.00’s, WHIP around 1.25, very low walk rate), except for his strikeouts. Pinango is striking out about 1 batter every two innings, whereas his rate was greater than 7 per 9 innings pre-injury. He’s still only 23 years old, so he may be re-establishing his stock for the future.

Portland pitching was pretty good in the game, considering that they lost 7-0. Save for a six-batter burst in the third inning, capped by Jay Caligiuri’s grand slam that made the score 6-0, the Bingamton bats were pretty quiet throughout the nightcap.

The opening game featured a theme that has become all too familiar of late for the Sea Dogs, and particularly starting pitcher Chris Smith. Smith allowed a long home run to Michel Abreu in the first, then settled down while the Sea Dogs took a 4-2 lead after four innings. Smith struggled a bit in the fifth and the Mets closed it to one run. It looked for all the world like Smith should probably come out of the game, but he had only thrown 77 pitches to that point and came out for the sixth. He responded with a walk, a single, and back-to-back homers over the left field wall by Ragsdale and 37-year-old veteran Mike DiFelice. Li'l Papi brought the game back to one run, but Abreu hit an identical blast over the center field wall in the 7th to preserve the three run victory.

Notes:

Abreu had a big day, also coming up with two hits, including an RBI double, in the nightcap.
According to the scoreboard, Ragsdale is the #28 prospect in the Mets system. Well, too bad for the Mets, I guess. Ragsdale has some pop, but he's hitting .195 with 136 strikeouts in 93 games. Guys who can't make contact in AA don't make the majors. Oh, I recall Russell Branyan striking out at prodigious rates when he played for Akron way back when. Looking at his minor league stats, however, reveals the difference: Branyan struck out 114 times in 84 games in the EL over two seasons. He also hit 28 home runs and drew 63 walks in that time. Ragsdale barely has 28 walks (29 total) and has hit but six home runs. Co-scorers Nick and Rob dubbed Ragsdale "Corey with a K" earlier in the series.
Gomez reminds one of Hanley Ramirez. He's an athletic 20 year old, tall and skinny, who swings hard at everything and doesn't take a lot of walks. Ramirez' discipline numbers were a little better than Gomez', but the kid has a chance to be an exciting player like the Florida shortstop.

Gabbard To Make Major League Debut

2006-07-22T14:53:00.000-04:00

Kason Gabbard has been pegged by the Red Sox to fill in for Tim Wakefield. The erstwhile Mr. Hyde will make his major league debut this afternoon in Seattle. Wakefield apparently has a broken rib. Gabbard started the season in Portland and pitched very well: 9-2, 2.57, WHIP just over 1.00, and 68/23 K/BB ratio in 73.2 innings pitched. He started slowly for the PawSox, but had a couple of nice outings recently, and he currently stands at 1-3, 4.97 ERA, WHIP of 1.38 and 23/10 K/BB ratio in 29 innings pitched. His W/L record and ERA aren't impressive, but the ratios are all pretty good. Congrats to yet another Sea Dog on his way to the majors!

Here's a more extensive article from Minor Leage Baseball.com

Last Year's Prospects

2006-07-20T20:39:00.000-04:00

Last year was an exciting year for the Sea Dogs, with a bunch of top prospects coming through town, with a handful of middling prospects along for the ride as well. Let's see how they are all doing this year.

1B Jeremy West: Earned a return trip to Portland, where he has hit 294/364/462-8-46 in 85 games, mainly as a DH. He needs to hit for more power to make an impact in the big leagues, I believe.

2B Dustin Pedroia: He was promoed to AAA mid-season last year and remains there this year. Started slowly this year following a Spring Training injury, but has heated up lately: 307/382/431-3-32 in 80 games with an impressive 35/24 BB/K ratio. He should be in Boston in September, and I expect him to start for the BoSox next season.

SS Hanley Ramirez: Traded to Florida in the offseason as part of the package for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, Ramirez has hit 271/336/433-9-30 with 26 steals over 90 games as the Marlins starting shortstop. That's pretty darn good for a 22 year old middle infielder.

LF Chris Durbin: Durbin performed well for the Sea Dogs last year and made the EL all star team. He was returned to Portland and has been plagued by injuries for much of the year. He is hitting 261/348/394-4-23 in 62 games on the season. His power numbers are down, which could be a result of the injuries. He was always a C/C+ prospect and I think he's still there, meaning he'll probably be 4th/5th OF in the majors some day.

CF David Murphy: He was also returned to Portland at the start of the season, but was promoted to Pawtucket after a month. He's really taken a shine to AAA, hitting 306/391/543-6-28 in 48 games for the PawSox. He's truly re-established his prospect status this year, after looking like a first-round bust as recently as last June.

RF Brandon Moss: He's sort of the opposite of Murphy. Moss had a huge year in 2004, then was OK in Portland last season (making the EL All Star game), leading many to assume he would be promoted to AAA. Instead, he was returned to the Sea Dogs, for whom he started very slowly. He's rebounded to hit 275/339/425-8-60 in 91 games. Moss has turned into a bit of an enigma, with impressive power numbers (including 29 doubles), but quite a bit of trouble with contact (75 K's). At 22 he's still quite young, and doubles at this age often translate to home runs in a couple of years. I believe that he can still establish himself as a solid major leaguer.

SP Jonathan Papelbon: When he left Portland last June he was known simply as Jon. Started a few games for the Sox last season, then came back as a setup man at the end of the season. He was quite effective in that role, but was given the keys to the closer's job when Keith Foulke proved not to be ready. He's been pretty good in that role: 44 G, 50 IP, 2-1, 0.54 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 29/32 in saves, 50K/9BB. Simply dominant. I still believe he'll be in the starting rotation as early as next year - his stuff is too good to limit to 80 innings per year.

SP Jon Lester: Yet another 22 year old. Lester didn't lengthen his name upon his promotion to Boston in June, but otherwise has also shown himself to be major league ready. In 8 starts for the Red Sox, he's 5-0, 2.38 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 37K/29BB in 45.1 innings. The walk rate (and, as a result, WHIP) is too high, but Papelbon's was pretty high last year, too. As Lester gains confidence, I think the walk rate will come down, and then look out. He's already proven to be a battler, bearing down with runners on base and keeping runs off the board despite allowing quite a few base runners. His ceiling is very very high.

SP Anibal Sanchez: He also went to the Marlins in the Beckett/Lowell trade. Sanchez started the year in AAA, but was recalled to Florida at the end of June. Sanchez has allowed just three hits and zero runs total over his last two starts, and is now 3-0, 3.41, 1.24, 15/12 in 29 innings. Sanchez doesn't have a history of walking a lot of batters, so I expect the K/BB to improve quite a bit. He's a month younger than Lester and another high-ceiling guy, though prior injuries are a concern for him.

SP David Pauley: He's sort of the pitching version of Durbin - a pretty good AA player who probably is in line for a bullpen or 5th-starter role in the majors. Pauley dominated the Eastern League, was called to Boston for three spot starts with limited success (7.88 ERA, 2.31 WHIP), then returned to Pawtucket where he has continued to struggle: 6 starts, 34.1 IP, 1-2, 5.24, 1.66, 11K/15BB. Not too good, but he's young for the league at age 23.

RP Cla Meredith: He was here for a very short time at the beginning of 2005 (in fact, I never got to see him pitch) but looked pretty good at that time. He had his struggles in Boston and Pawtucket after leaving Portland, then he was sent to San Diego in the deal to return Doug Mirabelli to the Red Sox this spring. He finally regained his form pitching for the Portland Beavers (3-0, 1.39, 0.93, 24/4 in 32.1 IP), and he's gone 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 8 innings pitched for the Padres.

RP Manny Delcarmen: He spent half the season playing for the Sea Dogs in 2005 before shuttling between AAA and the majors over the last couple of months. This year he seems to have established himself as one of Terry Francona's top setup men, appearing in 25 games with a 1-0 record, 3.25 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 24/8 K/BB ratio in 27.2 innings pitched. He's gained confidence in his ability to get major league batters out, and it shows in his July numbers: 1 run, 11 K's in 10.2 innings.

RP Edgar Martinez: El Guapo, Jr. is a raw pitcher with a lot going for him, including a mid-90's fastball and good control. He's been given the opportunity to be "the Man" in the Portland bullpen and has been mostly up to the task: 2-3, 8 saves, 45.2 innings, 2.96 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 42K/14BB. He got bit by the home run bug and struggled for a few weeks in June, but seems to be back on track.

RP Craig Hansen: The prize from the 2005 draft, Hansen started the season in Portland to pitch on a program to develop his repertoire beyond a 97 mph fastball and 88 mph slider. (Why he would need more than that, I don't know!) When AA hitters proved to be no test, the program was moved to Pawtucket. When "Proven Veterans" proved to be ineffective in Boston's bullpen, Hansen was given a chance for the big team. He's done OK so far: 15 IP, 1-0, 4.20 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 13/3 K/BB ratio. He's a few innings behind Delcarmen and Lester in learning to trust his stuff to be good enough in the big leages, but he's getting there. Hansen is the guy that I believe will allow Papelbon to return to the rotation.

Wow! That's 14 top prospects who came through town in 2005. Of those 13:

7 are currently contributing to major league teams, four with Boston, and one has established himself as a bonafide star (Papelbon). I believe all seven have solid major league careers in front of them.
2 have been promoted to AAA and are playing very well at that level, possibly setting dates for their major league debuts before the end of the season.
1 has made his major league debut and is currently adjusting to AAA.
4 remain in Portland, where all have played well if failing to tear up the league. I believe that two of these guys (Moss and Martinez) are still in line to make significant contributions at the major league level.

Not taking anything away from this year's team, which remains in first place in the EL North, but last year at Hadlock was a special time to watch some terrific prospects come through town. The Red Sox continue to draft good players, however, and perhaps it won't be long before we have another house full of up-and-coming stars in town.

Dogs Take Finale from Connecticut

2006-07-16T21:14:00.000-04:00

The Sea Dogs broke a three game losing streak and took the finale of a five-game series against the Connecticut Defenders with a convincing 10-1 victory on Sunday afternoon. It was another sweltering hot day at Hadlock Field and balls were flying around the park, at least while the Sea Dogs were at bat. Portland scored early and often, posting four runs in the bottom of the first and extending the lead to nine runs in the bottom of the sixth. Of course, no lead seems to be too big for the Sea Dogs to blow lately, at least while I'm in attendance. However, Luis Mendoza was in command throughout. He overcame errors that put the first two batters of the ballgame on base, and managed to finish seven innings with seven strikeouts and only one run allowed to collect his first AA win. Mike Bumatay pitched the last two innings for Portland. He struck out the final four batters he faced as the home plate ump was clearly ready to shower up after sweating for 2 1/2 hours. Chad Spann (2B, 2 3B, 4 RBI), Luis "Li'l Papi" Jimenez (2B, 3B, HR, 3 RBI) and Brandon Moss (4-5, 3 runs scored) swung the big sticks for Portland as they pounded Connecticut starter Geo Espinelli for nine runs in 4+ innings pitched.

Job well done.

Notes:

This was my first look at Jacoby Ellsbury (shown batting above), who was recently promoted from Wilmington. Ellsbury is ranked as Boston's #3 prospect by Soxprospects.com, and he has hit the ground running, hitting .450 (9-20) after today's 2-5, 2 run effort. Ellsbury has good speed, hits the ball with authority (at least he did so today), and covers a lot of ground in the outfield. He was compared to Johnny Damon when Boston drafted him last year, and the comparison looks apt.
Mendoza sported a low-90's fastball that he located well today, as well as a nice changeup that resulted in a handfull of called strike threes.
After Spann hit his second triple of the afternoon in the fourth inning, we decided that if he managed a home run before the game finished that we would award him with a "Yahtzee" cycle. In the game of Yahtzee, a player can use a second Yahtzee of the game to fill in a lower box. Using that logic, we were ready to credit one of his triples as a single to complet the cycle. Alas, the home run never came.
Li'l Papi was also just a single away from a cycle following his fifth inning triple, but he struck out in his final plate appearance.
Dunkin' Donuts gave away some god-forsaken, headache-inducing noisemakers before the game. Gone are the days when it's satisfactory to make noise with one's hands and one's voice. Now we need cheap plastic crap with a corporate logo on it to make the noise for us. Feh!

Smith Set to Start All Star Game

2006-07-11T11:04:00.000-04:00

Portland's Chris Smith has been named the Northern Division starter in the Eastern League All Star game on Wednesday. This according to a note at the bottom of the above-linked story. Smith is tied for the EL lead (along with former teammate Kason Gabbard) with 9, and following a couple of bumpy starts now stands 11th with a 3.19 ERA. Smith also has a fine 1.16 ERA and 68 K's vs. just 22 walks in 101.2 innings on the season. Congrats to Mr. Smith.

Wild Sunday at Hadlock

2006-07-04T21:21:00.000-04:00

Even Slugger was exhausted by the end of this one.

OK, so it's taken me two days to recover and post about Sunday's game between the Sea Dogs and the Thunder. It was a wild one - 14 innings, 60 baserunners (34 hits, 20 walks, 3 HPP, 3 ROE), 27 of whom ended up scoring; 5 total errors, three combacks, one at bat by a pitcher, and several players out of position at the end of the game. Oh, and five and a half hours of playing time. I was joined by my buddy Ralph, with whom I took in the game in Portland, Oregon a couple of moths ago. Portland to Portland - it seemed like such a good idea! However, Ralph could only stick around for four hours before leaving to catch a ferry. That seemed like plenty of time, but unfortunately he only caught the first nine innings. He saw a lot of baseball, but missed all of the lunacy at the end.

In the end (not that Ralph saw this), Trenton simply threw in the towel and conceded the game to Portland, putting infielder JT Stotts on the mound in a tie ballgame rather than further tax their bullpen. The empty bullpen, combined with injury and and an already shorthanded bench, led to a truly bizarre lineup taking the field for Trenton in the bottom of the 14th. Stotts had already made one position change in the game, moving from third to shortstop when starting shortstop Felix Escalona was injured while attempting to score on a base hit in the 12th. DH Eric Duncan took over at third at that time, putting the pitcher into the batting order. When Stotts took the mound in the 14th, Gabe Lopez moved from second base to SS, and left fielder Justin Christian moved to second base. To fill the spot in left field, Trenton Manager Bill Masse chose Matt DeSalvo, who was the starting pitcher on Friday night.

Stotts managed to retire David Bacani to lead off the 14th, but then walked two and hit a batter to load the bases before Brandon Moss ended matters with a fly ball off the left field wall that went down as a long single that scored Portland's 14th run for the victory. This concluded an extremely unlikely series of events that saw Portland blow a big lead for the second time in three games.

This time the Sea Dogs sped out to a 9-run lead, primarily courtesy of a 7-run second that knocked out Trenton starter Danny Borrell, and were cruising ahead 11-2 with ace Chris Smith on the mound. Dusty Brown had two two-run doubles to pace Portland's offense. Smith quickly lost it in the 6th, however, allowing a walk and four consecutive doubles before being replaced. Kyle Jackson, recently recalled from Greenville, proceeded to walk the next three batters, forcing in a run, and allowed a run-scoring single to Bronson Sardinha to cut the lead to 11-8.

In the 7th, Justin Christian scored while stealing third base for the second time in three games, this time on a Dusty Brown throwing error. Then in the 8th Trenton took the lead on a Randy Ruiz two-run homer and an RBI single by Christian. Meanwhile, Charlie Manning was throwing 3 2/3 innings of shutout relief. It looked bad for the Sea Dogs when Trenton closer Justin Pope took the mound with two outs in the 8th, however the home team rallied to tie it on Tyler Minges' double in the bottom of the 9th. Pope managed to strand Minges on third to send things into extra innings.

Things moved pretty quickly from there until Escalona reached on an error in the 12th, however he tried to score on a single by Omir Santos, but was gunned down by RF Bryan Pritz to end the threat. Trenton did score in the 13th on a couple of walks and a single by Bronson Sardinha (his fifth hit of the night). Jonathan Searles walked Eric Duncan to load the bases before pitcher Scott Patterson was forced to bat. He struck out to diffuse the rally. However, in an unusual move, he was then taken out of the game (I think we saw the Portland Beavers do this, too) in favor of Jeff Kennard, another Thunder pitcher having a terrific season. He too blew the save, however, allowing a long home run by Chris Durbin leading off the bottom of the 13th.

With blown saves by their two best relievers in the books for the game, Trenton then decided that 5:30 was enough playing time and called it an afternoon with Stotts on the mound. According to the game notes, the 27 total runs and 5 hour 30 minute playing time were both Sea Dogs franchise records.

Notes:

Too much wierdness for notes.

Sea Dogs All Stars

2006-07-01T16:58:00.000-04:00

Four members of the Sea Dogs were named Eastern League all stars this week.

RHP Chris Smith is the most productive pitcher remaining in Portland, exclusive of the injured Phil Seibel. Following Sunday's bumpy ride, Smith is now 9-3 with a 2.79 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 61:20 K/BB ratio in 96.2 innings pitched. Smith was injured in 2004 and doesn't appear to have his full velocity back, but his arm strength is returning and he records a lot of strikeouts with his offspeed stuff. Still, he was averaging over a strikeout an inning before the injury, which has dropped to 6 K's per 9 innings pitched. Regardless, he's pitched very well and was a key part of a very strong staff through the first half of this year.

3B Chad Spann is hitting 303/367/465-7-38 with 21 doubles on the season, and playing pretty good defense at third base. His status as a prospect slipped after an injury in 2004, but he seems to be back on track an is still just 22 years old. Spann has turned into one of Portland's top hitters and he plays good defense at third base. He has good reflexes and good range, though he does sometimes make a sloppy throwing error. That's the sort of thing that I expect him to improve upon with experience.

1B/DH Jeremy West has posted numbes similar to Spann's: 303/380/490-8-40, also with 21 doubles and only 36 strikeouts in 72 games played. West is no defensive genius, however, playing primarily as DH while Luis Jimenez covers first base. West's bat has clearly improved from last year, but if he's not going to have any defensive value, I think his home run production is going to have to improve. Hadlock Field (and the Eastern League in general) isn't the best place to hit home runs, so perhaps his production will improve with a promotion to AAA.

OF Tyler Minges played the first month of the season in AAA, but struggled a bit before being assigned to Portland. The speedy center fielder hit the ground running here, and has batted an impressive 310/365/465-3-32 with 18 doubles in just 46 games played. Minges doesn't walk a ton, but he has terrific gap power (as well as right-field line power) and hustles on every play. Unlike the other three Sea Dogs reps, Minges doesn't carry any sort of prospect label, but he's a very good AA player.

Also, Edgar "El Guapo Jr." Martinez has been selected to appear in the Futures all star game. Martinez is still a novice on the mound, but he's put up pretty good numbers in just his second full season as a pitcher. Martinez most closely represents Portland's closer this year, and has reponded fairly well with 2-3 record, 8 saves, 3.23 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 38 K's vs. 10 walks in 39 innings pitched. Martinez is a hard thrower who is still working to be more consistent with his breaking pitches, but I think he's got a good future ahead of him.

Other Portland players who were promoted before receiving consideration are lefty Kason Gabbard (9-2, 2.57, 1.03, 68 K, 25 BB in 73.2 innings pitched); righty David Pauley (only 2-3, but with a 2.39 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 47/17 ratio in 60.1 innings); and outfielder David Murphy (273/315/436-3-25 with 17 doubles in 42 games played). Seibel (2-3 in 9 starts, but with a 1.20 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 42 K's in 45 IP) would likely have also received consideration had he not gone on the disabled list.

Two current Sea Dog outfielders appeared in the 2005 All Star game but were not selected this year. Chris Durbin missed some time to injury and has struggled a bit, hitting just 247/344/377-3-17 in 46 games. Brandon Moss struggled mightily for two months, but had a very hot June to bring his numbers back to respectability. However, his 256/323/427-8-52 batting line is not overly impressive despite his being among the league leaders in RBI and doubles (24 on the season).

Red Sox prospect review

2006-07-01T16:57:00.000-04:00

Here is a link to Jon Sickels' review of the progress of his top 20 Red Sox prospects from the preseason. Most of the guys on the list either were in Portland last year or will be in a year or two. Moss and Martinez are the only two of the top 20 on the current roster, though Hansen and Murphy started the Sea Dogs. I think Ellsbury and maybe Bucholz or Bowden will be here in the next month or so, and a couple of the other Wilmington players could also finish the season in Portland. In reading the list, it's pretty impressive how many good prospects are in Boston's system, and how many of them were in Portland last year.

Sea Dogs Squander Big Lead

2006-07-01T16:07:00.000-04:00

Portland built up a six-run lead over the Trenton Thunder through five innings, but squandered the advantage over the final four to lose 7-6 on Friday night. The Sea Dogs rallied for five runs off Matt DeSalvo in the fourth and extended the lead on Little Papi's long home run in the fifth before the pitching fell apart and gave the game away.

Luis Mendoza started for the Sea Dogs and pitched well at the start of the game despite being felled by a line drive off the bat of one-time Yankee top prospect Eric Duncan in the top of the second inning. Mendoza recovered and had allowed just three hits and no walks with three K's through the fifth. Mendoza, a 22-year-old righty who resembles a high school sophomore, was having success combining his low-90's fastball with a sharp breaking ball. Things started to break down with Duncan's three-run blast in the sixth, but the wheels really began to fall off in the 7th.

Mendoza walked the 7th and 8th batters in the lineup to start the 7th, then gave up an infield single to the number nine hitter, ending his outing. Mike Bumatay came on and allowed Trenton's fourth run on a fielder's choice grounder by speedy Brett Gardner, who beat Zach Borowiack's throw and avoided a DP. Bumatay walked the next batter to re-load the bases, then threw a wild pitch on his first delivery to Randy Ruiz to make it 6-5. Bumatay then intentionally walked Ruiz and escaped further delivery following a nifty play by Jimenez to start a 3-6-3 double play.

The pitching trouble continued in the 8th, as Bumatay hit SS Felix Escalona with a pitch that would have been ball four. Escalona advanced on a passed ball before coming home with the tying run on a two-out single by #8 batter JT Stotts. Randy Beam allowed the winning run in the 9th, allowing a two-out double by Ruiz (last year's EL Batting Champ while playing for Reading). Speedy Jason Christianson came on to pinch run, and he subsequently scored from second when Beam threw a wild pitch while Christianson was stealing third base. It was the ugliest of the ugly runs allowed to cough up the game.

Luis Mendoza tries to draw a yellow card.

Notes:

Gardner's game is similar to that of Portland's Tyler Minges. He's a speedy outfielder who hustles on every play, as evidenced by his keeping a rally alive by beating out a double play ball. He also reached on a bunt single. Unlike Minges, the 22-year old Gardner is a rising prospect in just his second year of professional baseball.
Minges was the batting champ in the Texas League last season, meaning two 2005 AA batting champs were in the game. Minges was 3-5 with a double and a triple, while Ruiz was 3-4 with two doubles and an intentional walk in the game.
DeSalvo is another of the Yankees better prospects, but he really struggled in AAA and hasn't improved any since his return to AA.
Trenton relief pitcher Scott Patterson is an Independant League refugee whose herky-jerky motion is painful to watch. It's a wonder that he has any control, but he managed three K's in his 2.1 innings of relief.
Duncan looks to be losing his prospect status following his return to Trenton and his switch to first base, but he's still very young (21) and he has good power and plate discipline. I believe he'll manage a decent major league career.
There was a large contingent of Trenton Thunder fans on hand for the game. Fortunately Portland fans were able to drown out any chants of "Let's go Thunder" as they arose.

Old News: Moss Honored, Gabbard Promoted

2006-06-28T21:51:00.000-04:00

With Mr. Hyde apparently vanquished, Kason Gabbard has been promoted to AAA Pawtucket. 2006 was Gabbard's third go-round with Portland, and really he really hit his stride this year. After posting a 6.28 ERA over the second half of 2004, and a decidedly up-and-down performance last season, Gabbard was terrific this season. In 13 starts, Gabbard had a 9-2 record with a 2.57 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 68/25 K/BB ratio in 73.2 innings pitched. He was leading the league in wins at the time of his promotion, 5th in WHIP and 10th in ERA. At 24, Gabbard really needs to be in AAA to make a play for the majors. He's got good stuff, and his issue is his command. When he's throwing strikes and getting ahead of batters he does well, but if not he gets hit hard.

With so many talented young pitchers ahead of him in the Red Sox system, many of whom are on the major league roster already, I don't see Gabbard making much of an impact in Boston. I think that the Red Sox hope that he can succeed at AAA and become a tradeable commodity at the deadline or following the season. I think that this would be best for Gabbard's major league hopes as well. Best of luck to another former Sea Dog.

Gabbard: Now Hyde-ing in Pawtucket

Also while I was away, Brandon Moss was named Eastern League player of the week for last week. Moss hit .448 (11/23) with four doubles, a triple, a home run, 5 RBI, 7 runs scored and an .870 slugging percentage. Moss' hot June has raised his batting line to 265/329/451-8-48 on the season. While his .780 OPS is pretty far down the line among EL leaders, Moss is second in the league with 23 doubles and tied for third with 48 RBI.

The Sea Dogs continue to chug along and, just past the midpoint of the season, remain in first by 5.5 games with a 46-28 record. After Portland finishes up with New Britain, they return home to face second-place Trenton.

Smith Struggles, but Wins

2006-06-22T08:27:00.000-04:00

Chris Smith clearly did not have his best stuff Wednesday night, but he showed some mettle in working out of several jams and the Portland offense eventually kicked in for a 7-3 Sea Dogs victory. Smith cruised through the first inning with two strikeouts before loading the bases in the second. He escaped that jam by striking out the 8th and 9th batters in the lineup. Smith struggled through the next three innings, working without a good fastball, falling behind batters and allowing early baserunners, but getting the Defenders to swing at a lot of curveballs in the dirt. Smith struck out the final batter in both the third and fifth inning with runners in scoring position. Smith unexpectedly came out to pitch the sixth and set Connecticut down 1-2-3. His final stat line is misleadingly good: 6 innings, 7 hits, 2 runs, 2 walks and 8 strikeouts. It was a gutty performance from a guy who is battling with Kason Gabbard for the title of staff ace. Smith improved his record to 8-3 with a 2.32 ERA on the season.

The Sea Dogs couldn't get much going off Connecticut starter Gen0 Espineli. However the Defender lefty, who spent the entire season in the bullpen before last night's start, was lifted in the fifth innig following a Luis Jimenez triple, having thrown 65 pitches. Reliever Scott Munter provided no relief, as he immediately walked the bottom two batters in the Portland order to load the bases for Tyler Minges. Minges obliged with a bases-clearing double to give Portland the lead. Brandon Moss followed with a double of his own to knock in the fourth run. Following a Chad Spann strikeout, Munter looked to be out of the inning when Jeremy West hit a fly to left, however LF Alex Requeno inexplicable dropped the routine play, allowing Moss to score. Portland cruised from that point on.

Notes:

Moss continues to swing the hot bat with two doubles last night. However his three strikeouts on the evening raise a red flag.
Another red flag is up for El Guapo Jr., who has been struggling a bit of late. I'm used to seeing Guapo throw 93-95 mph fastballs for strikes. However he struggled with control in his appearance last night, walking the bases loaded before escaping on a hard shot by Brian Busher that Moss was able to corral in deep right. Guapo's fastball was around 90. The few times he did dial it up to 93, the pitches were up and out of the zone. He's still new to pitching. Perhaps he's in an adjustment period, but I suspect that he has a tired arm.
Busher has had a terrific series so far, starting with his three hit effort on Monday. He had two more hits last night, including a home run, and is 6-11 in the three games.
Chad Spann was charged with a tough error in the second. He needed to keep his throw low enough so that Jimenez wouldn't lose it in the sun. Instead, it skipped past Li'l Papi for an error.
Defenders reliever Joe Bateman slings it sidearm, just like another Joe who used to patrol the youth league mounds of Western Maine about 25-30 years ago. Whatever happened to that guy? He had pretty good stuff!

Defenders top the Dogs

2006-06-20T08:35:00.000-04:00

The Sea Dogs fell to the Connecticut Defenders 4-3 in Monday's series opener. The game was a lot closer than it needed to be, as Connecticut collected 11 hits (three by Brian Buscher) and three walks. However, the Defenders also hit into three double plays (one with the bases loaded) and had a man thrown out attempting to steal, all of which combined with a lack of timely hitting to keep the game close.

Portland started Luis Mendoza was making his second AA start of the year, and it began pretty well. Mendoza featured a 92 mph fastball to set up a sharp curve in striking out leadoff batter Clay Timpner. That was Mendoza's last strikeout, however. As the game progressed, his velocity levelled off in the 89-90 mph range and he was quite hittable. There were a few nice defensive plays behind him, the highlight being Tyler Minges' second inning strike from center field to first base to double off Tyler von Schell, who had been running on the pitch.

Defense also failed the Sea Dogs, as Dusty Brown's throw to third on a double steal skipped into the outfield, allowing Timpner to score the winning run in the 7th. Mendoza also handed Connecticut a run in the fourth by balking Brian Munhall to third base and allowing him to score on a wild pitch. The wild pitch was doubly troubling, as it also represented ball four issued to the number nine batter in the lineup.

Notes:

Minges is similar to second baseman Scott Youngbauer, who came to Portland following Dustin Pedroia's promotion last summer. He hits for a good average, doesn't walk a lot, has some pop, and he can field his position. At 26, he's too old to expect much of a major league career at this stage, but he can definitely help a team like Portland. He hustles out every hit, and tonight his hustle contributed to two runs. Minges beat out a double play grounder in the 5th and scored on Brandon Moss' triple. By staying out of the DP, Minges also enabled Moss to score on Chad Spann's sacrifice fly.
Moss is continuing the hot hitting that he was showing during the last homestand. The right fielder has hit .341 over his last 25 games, which have included 9 multi hit outings (per the Sea Dogs game notes). It's a steep hill, however, as his average still stands at just .247 with a .311 OBP. Moss leads Portland with 7 homers and 42 RBI.
The Defenders play an agressive brand of baseball, with lots of stolen base attempts and hit-and-run opportunities. With half the team hitting close to .200, you do what you gotta do.
This was the first game at Hadlock with the fresh-back-from-a-strike minor league umps. I thought that the replacement umps did a fine job, but they weren't all that aggressive. I saw my first balk of the year called on Mendoza.

Dogs roam the grounds at Fenway

2006-06-12T21:02:00.000-04:00

It was a big weekend at Fenway Park, as Portland fans got to see many former Sea Dogs in action for the parent Red Sox:

Jon Lester made his much-anticipated major league debut on Saturday. He wasn't terrific, but he held his own, allowing three runs on five hits in 4.1 innings, walking four and striking out four. It looked like Lester was overthrowing and he didn't have great command, but he also showed what a battler he is with a bases-loaded strikeout to end the second inning. He'll be around for awhile as David Wells continues his rehabilitation.
David Pauley didn't fare as well, allowing six runs on 12 hits in five innings against the Rangers on Sunday before being sent to Pawtucket to make way for Mike Timlin. The Sox knew that Pauley wasn't quite ready when they promoted him a couple of weeks ago, and he didn't disprove that. He'll be a good major league pitcher, but he needs to be able to put batters away and cut down on the hits (31 allowed in 16 innings pitched).
Craig Hansen made his 2006 debut on Friday night, surrendering a run on two hits in 2/3 of an inning before being sent back to Pawtucket to make room for Lester. Hansen combined with Jonathan Papelbon to blow the save before the Sox rallied back for the win.
Papelbon ended up with the victory in that game. He has been simply dominant this year, allowing only one run in 30.1 innings (0.30 ERA). He's allowed only 19 baserunners, and has an outstanding 31/4 K/BB ratio. The blown save on Fridy was Pap's first in 21 opportunities.
Manny Delcarmen collected his first big league win in relief in Sunday's opener. After a couple of shaky outings, Delcarmen has become an effective arm out of the pen. He's been scored upon in just one of his last seven outings (2 ER, 2.08 ERA).
Delcarmen's win came in relief of Josh Beckett, who was a Sea Dog when they were affiliated with the Marlins. Beckett has been shaky at times this year, especially recently. Though not as dominant as the Sox would like, he has a nice 7-3 record with a 5.26 ERA ans 62 K's in 75.1 innings pitched.
Another Marlin-related Sea Dog alum is starting shortstop Alex Gonzalez. Gonzalez has come as advertised - nifty defense, no offense. Gonzalez' line of 229/288/325-3-18 is actually a bit worse than I expected from him. Hopefully he can get his batting average up a bit and his OBP over .300. He's got a bit of pop in his bat, but I don't think he's in any danger of keeping Dustin Pedroia in AAA past this season.
Finally, Kevin Youkilis has been the starting first baseman for the Sox all season long. Youks is a member of the first Red Sox class to come through Portland, and he has shined in his first opportunity to play every day. Youks has always had good on-base skills, and they've really shined as he's posted a 319/438/505-7-29 batting line. Youks' 43 walks trail only Manny Ramirez for tops on the Red Sox. Youkilis is 5th in the league in walks and 4th in OBP. Plus, he's played some outstanding defense at first base, despite never having played the position as a professional. He's been better than expected, and a big part of the success of the 2006 Red Sox.

That's eight former Sea Dogs playing for the Sox over the weekend, five of whom were here last season (and two were here again this season). Abe Alvarez makes it nine former Dogs who have appeared in Sox games this year. The class of 2005 is also represented by the fine play of Hanley Ramirez, who is making a strong play for the NL Rookie of the Year award, and Cla Meredith, who collected his first major league win for the Padres last month. Meredith was sent west in the Doug Mirabelli trade earlier this season.

It's gratifying to see so many players make their way to the big leagues, and a reminder of the high quality of play that one can see at AA.

Another Sweep for the Sea Dogs

2006-06-12T20:40:00.000-04:00

Rain? What rain? The Sea Dogs waited out a whole bunch of rain - rain that wiped out the final two games of the Altoona series, and delayed the start of the Erie series until 8:30 on Saturday night - to sweep the Erie Coincidences over the weekend. I was unable to go to any of the games (thank god - the Saturday doubleheader didn't finish until after 1:00 am), so I don't have a "from the ballpark" report today, but there are a few notes to share.

Kason Gabbard won the opener on Saturday, and now leads the EL with 7 wins. He's having a terrific season (7-2, 3.17), which will be even more important with David Pauley's return to Pawtucket.
Phil Seibel pitched another five-inning gem on Saturday, extending his string of shutout innings to 22.1, breaking Craig Hansen's short-lived team record. Seibel has lowered his ERA to 1.20, and he has an 0.80 WHIP in 45 innings pitched.
Gabe Kaplar began his rehab assignment over the weekend. He appeared in all three games, going 4-10 with three doubles and a triple. He'll play next at Pawtucket.
The Sea Dogs have now won nine games in a row as they hit the road. They have a 36-22 record and lead Trenton by seven games.

Sea Dogs outslug Altoona

2006-06-08T08:13:00.000-04:00

Jose Vaquedano is looking for a nickname. His up-and-down performance is reminiscent of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Unfortunately for Jose, the Sea Dogs already have a Jekyll-and-Hyde pitcher in the name of Kason Gabbard. Regardless, Vaquedano made a push to wrestle the title away from the suddenly-pretty-consistant Mr. Gabbard by following last Thursday's pretty good outing with a pretty bad one Tuesday night. Vaquedano gave up seven hits and six walks and hit a batter in just 2.1 innings against the Curve, but he somehow managed to allow just six runs and avoid the loss. That's because the suddenly-potent Sea Dogs lineup smashed 13 hits of their own, including three home runs (Altoona batters also had three, including a grand salami by Ray Sadler).

Lucky for the Sea Dogs, Altoona starter Matt Peterson was no better. The Dogs knocked him out in the fourth after he allowed seven runs. Despite his poor performance, Peterson didn't collect the loss either. That honor went to Jon Albaladejo, who helped cap Portland's seven-run fourth by surrendering a three-run blast to Little Papi that gave Portland a 10-8 lead. From there the Dogs cruised to a 13-8 victory.

Spann, Durbin and Jiminez celebrate Li'l Papi's three-run blast

Notes:

The weather was nice, which is fortunate for me, because it doesn't look like they'll be playing any baseball, at least not any dry baseball, for a while now.
Altoona features three former Sea Dogs, OF/DH Brett Roneberg (shown batting below) and pitchers Blaine Neal and James Johnson. Despite being a former Red Sock, Neal was here when the Sea Dogs were affiliated with the Marlins. And it's clear to see why Mr. Neal is back down to AA after time in the bigs - he's really wild. He nailed Tyler Minges in the head with a fastball (thank goodness for helmets) in the 6th. Minges left the game, but is reportedly OK.

Curve prospect Craig Stansberry failed to impress, going 0-5 with three K's and committing an error that led to two unearned runs. Least impressive was his following three Vaquedano walks and a HBP that led to a first-inning run, by swinging at three straight offerings for the inning-ending K.
This game illustrates how poor an indicator of performance that Win/loss records are. Devern Hansack pitched three terrific shutout innings in relief, but the win went to Jonathan Searles, who allowed two runs in 1.2 innings, but who was the pitcher of record when Jiminez went deep. Likewise, Peterson probably deserved the L for Altoona.
The Curve are named after the Horseshoe Curve, a railroad feature near Altoona that is also an historic landmark.
The entertainment, if you want to call it that, is a person named Christopher who has four life-sized puppets attached to him. They are all dressed up like the Village People and dance around to disco music. It is an abomination, but apparently he gets paid to do this. Give me Slugger any day of the week!

Christopher and friends.

Sea Dogs Receive Awards

2006-06-06T08:26:00.000-04:00

Last week was a successful one for the Sea Dogs, and two of their players were rewarded for their efforts. Chad Spann and Phil Seibel received Eastern League Player and Pitcher of the week honors, respectively. Spann hit .481 (13-27) for the week, with three doubles, a triple and a home run. He scored 8 runs and drove in 7. Seibel made two starts for a total of 10 shutout innings in running his scoreless streak to 17.1 consecutive innings. Seibel, along with Kason Gabbard and Chris Smith, helped limit the Connecticut Defenders to one run in sweeping a three-game set over the weekend, much to the dismay of a fellow blogger. Portland now leads the EL East by five games over Connecticut and New Britain.

The Altoona Curve come to town this week. They are currently in second place, 1/2 game out of first in the EL South, but they are doing it with a bunch of minor league veterens. Only three members of the current roster warrant inclusion on John Sickels' list, and they all rate at C+, which is hardly a sure thing.

Two of the players are the keystone combination of Craig Stansberry (2B) and Javier Guzman (SS). Thus far on the season, the two (both 23 years old) have hit like middle infielders. Stansberry shows a bit more power and patience, coming in at 236/324/415-7-22 with 7 steals. Guzman's line, 236/272/316-2-15, screams "I better play good defense." Alas, Guzman leads the team with 15 errors, not that this is the strongest indicator of defensive performance.

The other prospect is RHP Chad Blackwell, who missed the first two month of the season and has appeared in two games, allowing three runs in three innings pitched. Blackwell is just 22 years old, so he certainly has time to develop.

Also on the Altoona roster is former Sea Dog Brett Roneberg. The 2004 Sea Dogs MVP (278-17-77) and now a part time outfielder for the Curve, Roneberg is also one of their top hitters, batting 313/365/447-5-25 in 38 games.

Bloggers at the Ballpark

2006-06-02T19:21:00.000-04:00

Bloggers of the world (two of them anyway) united at Hadlock Field on Thursday afternoon for an afternoon of baseball and cameraderie in the swealtery noontime heat. Fellow Maine-based blogger Wisdom Weasel, his "Little Bruva," Bruva's wife and daughter joined me and Ms. SeaBlog in checking out the new rightfield Pavilion seats. By all accounts, Weasel did get married over the weekend, but the blushing bride wasn't feeling up to the trip to Portland on this particular afternoon. Also missing was another local blogger, who had some lame excuse about a College World Series to attend.

(Weasel, his little bruva, littler neice, little friend Ms. SeaBlog, and little Sister-in-law, enjoy the view).

I have mostly great things to say about the Pavilion seats. For one thing, the view from rightfield is terrific (though balls to deep right disappear from the view). For another, the seatfront tables are extremely convenient for keeping one's food, camera, binoculars and scorebook off the lap and at an easy arms reach. Weasel would call the tables "outstanding." There is also more leg- and elbow-room than in the grandstands.

As for negatives, I understand that the "queue" for the concessions can be quite long (and on this particular day was referred to as "Middle School Hell." Also, the chairs, tables, rails, stairs - all are made of aluminum. I'm sure this is fine for night games. On a muggy 87-degree afternoon, it begins to resemble a solar oven. The heat was too much for some of our fair-skinned friends from across the pond.

View of the full house from right field.

Those of you who are familiar with Wisdom Weasel know that he is a very funny man whose wit ranges from silly to ascerbic. I spent perhaps too much time with my scorebook and not enough time with my notebook, but we were treated to a few nuggets on the afternoon:

On Ms. SB's noting all of the disco music played between innings and at bats: "It's like it's Pride Day at the ballpark."
A comparison of American Football and Rugby inspired the observation that "Aussie rules football is basically a bunch of men with speedos and mullets colliding into one another."
Weasel's version of "Take Me Out To The Ballgame," which we won't repeat here.

He also noted that a pile of aluminum probably isn't the place you want to be during a thunderstorm, and when one rolled toward the park in the 8th inning we decided to skedaddle. The umpires halted play in the middle of the 8th, and though the delay was short we had already committed to calling it a day.

As for the game itself, it turned into a slugfest, as the teams combined for 27 hits in a 10-5 Portland victory. Top Yankee prospect Philip Hughes took the mound for Trenton. He was pretty good for the first four innings, then got knocked about in the 5th and 6th, finishing with eight hits and six runs allowed in five innings pitched. He did manage to strike out six batters. The bullpen didn't fare any better as the Dogs scored two runs in each of the last four innings that they batted. Jeremy West led a balanced attack with four hits and three RBI, Tyler Minges had three hits, and Chris Durbin and Dusty Brown both had two hits, Brown's both being doubles. Jose Vaquedano was much more impressive than he was last Sunday. Vaquedano cruised through a perfect first three innings before having a bumpy, three-run fourth. He settled down again to finish with just the three runs allowed on four hits and two walks through 5.2 IP, impressively striking out 8 Thunders in the process. The other highlight on the afternoon was Little Papi, aka "wheels", stealing second base following a fourth inning single.

Pauley to Make MLB Debut

2006-05-31T15:15:00.000-04:00

Sea Dogs right hander David Pauley will make his Major League debut tonight against the strong Toronto Blue Jays lineup. It's a tall order for Pauley's major league debut. The Blue Jays lead the majors with a collective 300/362/499 (861 OPS) batting line and are averaging 5.6 runs per game. The Jays lineup features seven regulars with OPS greater than 850. Pauley is having a fine season for Portland, sporting a 2.39 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 47/17 K/BB ratio in 60.1 innings with a hard-luck 2-3 record. He's a sinker/change/curveball guy who is effective when he throws strikes and keeps the ball on the ground. If he can manage that tonight, he should be fine. John Lester and Abe Alvarez are more major-league ready at Pawtucket, but their pitching schedules didn't work for this start. Best of luck, David!

Mike Rozier was promoted from Greenville and will take Pauley's start tonight. Rozier is a mid-grade prospect. In nine starts for the drive this year he's 3-1 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He has a rather pedestrian 31/20 K/BB ratio in 42.2 innings. He's still only 21, so he may be in position to take a leap forward in the next couple of seasons.

Former Sox Prospect Sinks Dogs

2006-05-28T22:51:00.000-04:00

A ninth inning homer by Steve Lomasney sunk the Sea Dogs, 6-5 on Saturday afternoon. Lomasney was once a top catching prospect in the Boston organization, appearing in one game with the big club in 1999, but has been bouncing around the minors while dealing with injury problems for the past couple of years. Healthy again, he's in the Twins organization, trying to revive his prospect status with the New Britain Rock Cats. In the top of the 9th on Saturday, he caught up with a fastball delivered by El Guapo, Jr. and bounced it off the Hannaford sign over the left field wall for a two run shot, resulting in Martinez' second blown save of the season.

With tempertures in the 80's, this felt like a mid-summer game. However, the teams were hardly in mid summer form, as the game was rather sloppily played. The teams combined to commit three errors, we saw a failed sacrifice bunt (courtesy of the Sea Dogs) and a runner picked off second base (ditto). Neither starting pitcher lasted through the fifth inning. Portland starter Jose Vaquedano allowed four runs, only one earned, in 4.2 innings, and pitched OK though he was hardly overpowering. Adam Harben, considered one of Minnesota's top prospects, did not impress at all. Harben throws in the low 90's, but had zero command. He was knocked out with two outs in the fourth having allowed three runs on four hits, three walks and two hit batsmen. He failed to record a single strikeout on the afternoon.

The Sea Dogs scored a couple of runs off John Thomas in the 6th, then both bullpens settled down. El Guapo, Jr. was called upon for a two-inning save. He cruised through the 8th, then got into trouble by giving up a leadoff double to Doug Deeds to start the ninth. A sacrifice put the tying run on third, but Lomasney did better than tie the game with his blast. Levale Speigner, who was a starter last season, came on to shut the door on the Dogs in the 9th.

Scorer's Notes:

Brandon Moss may be showing signs of coming out of his season-long slump. He only recorded one hit in five plate appearances but, importantly, did not strike out. It looks like he's making an effort to hit the ball to the opposite field, which results in far less flailing at outside pitches. If it's good enough for Manny, I guess it's good enough for Moss.
The Red Sox appear to be making a conscious decision to not have a designated "closer" on their minor league teams. Martinez leads the Sea Dogs with 6 saves, but he was splitting the role with Barry Hertzler prior to Hertzler's promotion. Seven different pitchers have already recorded saves for the Sea Dogs. Meanwhile, the "closer of the future" for the Red Sox is starting games and working multiple innings for Pawtucket. In fact, the Sea Dogs have had several multiple-inning saves. It seems that the organization is finding it more important to develop it's players than to have guys pigeonholed into roles that they may not be filling at the next level. It's good approach.
In addition to some of the failings noted above, the Sea Dogs twice had hit-and-run singles that only advanced the runner one base, and they left 10 runners on base. Ugh!

El Guapo deals

Two are Promoted

2006-05-26T22:43:00.000-04:00

The Red Sox promoted Sea Dogs OF David Murphy (pictured)and Relief Pitcher Barry Hetzler to Pawtucket. Chris Durbin and Randy Beam were activated from the DL to take their places.

Murphy was highly touted after being selected in the first round in 2003. He had a hot start in Lowell and was considered a top prospect. He suffered through an injury-filled 2004 in which he showed no power whatsoever. Last year in Portland he started off slow with the bat, and his prospect status was practically nonexistant. Then he regained his stroke and some power in the second half of the season. Murphy was named the Sea Dogs MVP with his 275/337/430-14-75 performance. Many expected Murph to head to Pawtucket out of spring training, but he returned to Portland. In 42 games for the Sea Dogs this year he hit 273/315/436-3-25 and was leading the team in RBI and with 17 doubles. He had a terrific game last Sunday that may have sped his promotion.

To me, Murphy looks like a good gap hitter with power that continues to emerge. He doesn't walk as much as the Sox might like to see, but he seems like an intelligent player and that may come. He's very good defensively, covering a lot of ground in center field, and he has a strong arm. I think he'll start slowly, but ultimately do well in AAA.

Hertzler I know less about. I think I saw him once this year. He's got a low-90's sinker that seems to be developing. Hertzler has a 1.05 ERA to go along with four saves in 25.2 IP, but his 1.32 WHIP and 17/14 K/BB ratio indicate he's been a bit lucky thus far. At 25 years old, he's a bit old for strong "prospect" status, but he's been a valuable part of the Portland pen.

We wish them both well in AAA.

Sea Dogs host Rock Cats

2006-05-26T21:33:00.000-04:00

After completing a four-game sweep of the Binhamton Mets, the Sea Dogs return home for four-game stints vs. the New Britain Rock Cats, which will be followed with a four game set vs. the Trenton Thunder, which includes a Wednesday double header.

New Britain captured game one of the series, 4-0, as Errol Simonitsch blanked the Dogs on three hits over seven innings. David Pauley had another good start go for naught for the lack of run support. He gave up four runs (three earned) in a strong 8 inning outing in which he allowed just six hits and one walk.

Let's take a quick look at the top prospects on the New Britain roster, according (as always) to John Sickels.

RHP Matt Garza is given a B+ rating by Sickels, which is very good. The 22 year old starter made short work of the Florida State League, going 5-1 with a 1.42 ERA and 53 strikeouts in 44.1 innings. He's been even better in two starts thus far for New Britain, allowing no runs in 13.2 innings, surrendering just five hits and two walks while striking out 22 in that time. He will take the mound in Sunday's game.

3B Matt Moses is right behind Garza with a B rating. Just 21 years old, he's acquitted himself well against generally older competition. In 37 games, Moses is batting 289/331/467-7-22 for the Cats.

Adam Harben is another big 22 year old righty. He's 1-2 with a 2.92 ERA on the season, but his K:BB ratio (19:26 in 37 IP) is not encouraging. He starts Saturday's game.

OF Alex Romero is granted a B- by Sickels, though I think he's pretty good player. He's back for his second go-round at AA after having a fine season in which he batted .301 with 15 home runs at age 21 last year. Romero started the season in AAA this year, but was sent back after a slow start. He's been tearing up the Eastern League thus far, batting 312/387/541-4-13 with 10 steals. Romero didn't walk much last year, but he seems to have picked up the rate this year and he doesn't strike out much. I think he's a guy to watch.

LHP Glen Perkins is the third member of the rotation on Sickels' list. The 23 year-old spent half the season last year in New Britain and returns for a longer stint this time around. Perkins has had some poor luck in showing a 1-4 record despite a decent 3.50 ERA and 54/17 K:BB in 46.2 IP. Perkins is also scheduled for this series, pitching in Monday's finale.

OF Denard Span is the final Rock Cat on the list. Another 22 year old, and another guy returning to AA, Span is a speed guy with a decent BA, OK-not-great walk rate, and little power. His numbers this year are 286/335/337-1-10 with 8 steals (in 12 tries).

That's a pretty good list of prospects, most of whom are playing well this year. The Rock Cats are just 21-23 thus far, but if these guys gel and the supporting cast is decent, I expect New Britain to make a run at the playoffs.

Big Inning Leads to Win

2006-05-21T21:51:00.000-04:00

It looked like it was going to be a rain soaked loss this afternoon at Hadlock. That was before the Sea Dogs strung together eight straight hits to start an eighth inning in which they would eventually score 11 runs. The final result was an easy 12-5 victory over the visiting New Hampshire Fisher Cats. David Murphy struck two big blows in the inning, a two-run double to narrow the score to 5-3 in favor of New Hampshire, then a bases loaded triple to give the Dogs a save 11-5 lead. Murphy, who scored the final run on Chad Spann's ground out, had a huge game. The lanky center fielder hit three doubles off the outfield wall and the line drive triple in the right field corner as part of a 5-5 performance in which he scored three runs and knocked in five. Murphy moved into the team lead with 24 RBI on the year.

David Pauley got the start for the Sea Dogs and had another fine performance without his best stuff. He pitched six innings and allowed just two runs on six hits with no walks while striking out five. After Jon Searles gave up three unearned runs in the middle of a heavy downpour, Victor Ramos came in to pitch in a mopup role. Ramos has been struggling on the season, but he pitched two shutout innings and found himself with a win at the end of the day.

Scorer's notes:

Catcher Curtis Thigpen swung the big bat for the Fisher Cats, hitting a home run over the scoreboard in left-center field in the sixth and collecting a double on the afternoon. The top prospect also threw out two of three would-be base stealers on the afternoon.
Murphy also flashed some leather in tracking down Chip Cannon's deep sacrifice fly ball in the top of the first innings.
Brandon Moss is really struggling with the bat. He managed an RBI single during the 8th inning rally and collected a walk, but he also looked bad on three strikeouts during the game. After going down in the 6th, Moss slammed his bat into the ground and broke it into two pieces.
Pauley coaxed 9 ground ball outs in the game. Most went to Spann, who handled 9 chances at the hot corner. He's a fine fielder, however his throwing error spurred the three-run NH rally in the 7th.
The temparature dropped more than 10 degrees as the dark clouds rolled in early in the game. Rain was falling by the fourth inning. It was too wet to take any further notes.

Storm's a comin'.

Abe Alvarez Promoted

2006-05-20T22:49:00.000-04:00

Former Sea Dog Abe Alvarez was promoted to Boston to provide a lefty arm out of the bullpen. This is Abe's fourth cup with the Sox, and he's not had a lot of success (9 runs allowed in 7.1 innings pitched). This, plus the development of studs Jonathan Papelbon and Jon Lester, had many people forgetting about his prospect status. However, despite his 4.85 ERA in Pawtucket last season, he was the best pitcher on the staff at just 22 years of age. We forget just how young he's been compared to the competition ever since he was drafted out of Long Beach State in 2003.

Alvarez is a Bill Lee-type pitcher. Not a great fastball, but a lot of great junk and terrific control. Reports indicate that he's been working on a cut fastball thus far this season. The results have been pretty good. In 7 starts for the PawSox, he's 5-0 with a 2.18 ERA and a WHIP just over 1.00. His K/BB numbers aren't as good as they have been in the past, which may be the result of him working on other pitches, but his results speak for themselves. I think Abe still has a good career as a mid-rotation starter ahead of him, and could be a 15+ game winner with the right lineup around him. Here's hoping he gets a chance to pitch, and that he takes whatever opportunity to show what he can do.

Dogs are Struggling

2006-05-20T21:00:00.000-04:00

While the Sea Blog has been away, the Dogs have failed to play . . . . good baseball. The Sea Dogs have lost six of their last seven outings. Following a rain out in Portland, the Dogs dropped the series finale vs. Trenton. They then dropped two to the New Hampshire Fisher Cats before a couple more rainouts. That was followed by a sweep by the Thunder in Trenton. The Sea Dogs then returned to Portland and ended the streak with a 5-2 victory over the Fisher Cats behind another strong outing by Chris Smith on Friday night. Portland was back in the loss column in falling 4-1 this afternooon.

While the pitchers have had a few poor outings, it's the offense that continues to fail the Sea Dogs. Portland has scored just 10 runs in the six losses, with two shutouts in the streak. There are no current members of the team with an OPS above .800, save for Tyler Minges who is hitting 286/375/476-0-3 in eight games since being sent back from Pawtucket. Luis Antonio "Little Papi" Jiminez has been the best overall batter for Portland (264/355/438-5-17), while David Murphy is putting up "OK" numbers (272/318/422-3-19), though he's not walking a ton. Chad Spann (250/357/352) is the only other Portland batter with an OPS over .700. Brandon Moss leads the team with 20 RBI, but his 197/244/333 line and team-leading 33 strikeouts are extremely disappointing for a top prospect in his second year at AAA. Jeremy West and Alberto Concepcion are two other guys who returned and have failed to progress thus far this season.

The fact that the Sea Dogs are 20-18 and in second place in the EL North is directly attributable to the pitching staff. Smith (3-3, 2.01, 0.93), David Pauley (2-2, 2.14, 1.25 WHIP), and Kason Gabbard (4-2, 3.44, 1.20) have all been solid. Phil Siebel has been a tough luck 0-2 with a 1.8o ERA and 0.95 WHIP in four starts since his recall from Greenville. The bullpen has done a respectable job, anchored by Barry Hertzler (1.19 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 4 saves) and Edgar "Guapo Jr." Martinez (1.33 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, 4 saves, 22/3 K/BB ratio in 20.1 IP). Guapo has come from almost nowhere to become a top prospect for Boston. He's now ranked #8 by the folks at SoxProspects.com.

I'll be attending the Sunday game vs. the Fisher Cats, my first in a few weeks. New Hampshire has been a tough rival for the Sea Dogs (and, as a Blue Jays affiliate, a rival through the major league clubs, too) over the last couple of years, but are only 15-24 and last in the North thus far on the season. The Fisher Cats have a few guys who appear on John Sickels' top 20 list - C Curtis Thigpen, OF Adam Lind, 1B Chip Cannon and LHP Davis Romero. All have produced well for NH. Cannon (264/345/481-6-16) and Lind (255/297/416-6-15) lead the team in homers, though Lind doesn't walk much and is making far too many outs. Thigpen's play has been more limited, but his 254/389/475-1-6 line in 18 games shows both good power and good plate discipline. Romero has pitched well (4-3, 2.44, 1.06, 44/12 K/BB in 48 IP) in 8 starts, though he took the loss on Friday night.

Hopefully the Dogs will finish the series with another Sunday special. I expect the hitting to hit it's stride soon. There are a lot of players repeating AA this year, and that's usually a recipe for success. If the struggles continue, it would have to be considered a disaster for the Red Sox farm system.

The Other Portland

2006-05-14T21:45:00.000-04:00

I'm freshly returned from the other Portland, the one in Oregon, where my buddy Ralph and I took in a Thursday night tilt between the Beavers (AAA affiliate of the San Diego Padres), and the Albuquerque Isotopes, the Marlins affiliate in the Pacific Coast League.

The venue was Portland's PGE Park. This is an old ballpark (formerly Multnomah Stadium) that is tucked in between on 18th Street at the end of Taylor and Salmon Streets. The approach to the field is terrific. There is a fence beyond the family deck in left field that passers-by can look through to see the park and the field below. The street is close enough that it can be reached by a ball on the fly, as was the case on the night that I was there.

The park also has a manually-operated scoreboard. You can see the "action" from the street.

I'm not sure of the capacity, but it is certainly in excess of 15,000 people, however the park maintains an intimate feel similar to Hadlock Field in Portland, Maine. For one thing, the park is crammed between the city's streets and has a health club looming just beyond the right field fence. While the actual outfield fence is short, the sunken nature of the park leads to an ivy-covered concrete wall in left that attempts to capture the ambience of Fenway or Wrigley, but fails in both endeavors. There is a family section to the left of the foul pole, with table seating and bouncy rides.
Most of the seating is under an overhanging roof. The roof and all the surrounding concrete make it a pretty loud place.

The park was renovated a few years ago, resulting in the addition of the private boxes behind home plate that you can see in the "from the street" photo above. The concourses were expanded, and the place is quite comfortable with a lot of concessions. Some members of our conference attended the Wednesday night game and reported that it was $1 hot dog night. We didn't get that benefit, but were pleased to learn that Thursday night is $2 Miller Lite night. I'm not the biggest fan of Miller Lite, and thus was quite pleased to find out that the microbrews were also $3 off - for the same price as a bag of peanuts, one could purchase 12 lucious ounces of Widmer Brothers Drop Top Amber Ale. Which Ralph and I did, a couple of times over.

There was a ballgame that night, and a pretty good one, too. I'm a bit of a prospect follower, and there wasn't much to follow. The Beavers active roster only featured one player on John Sickels' list - first baseman Paul McAnulty - and he didn't play. The Isotopes have a few more guys who are prospects, but two of them are in the rotatation (Yusmiero Petit and Renyel Pinto) and not pitching. We did get to see an inning from RH reliever Chris Resop at the end of the night.

On the other hand, former prospects were aplenty. Portland started Jack Cust, Terrmel Sledge and Bobby Hill, all of whom were highly touted at one point or another, and none of whom has made much of a mark in the majors. There were a bunch of other guys who have had major league time without a ton of success - Seth Etherton, Jimmy Anderson and Scott Seabol to name three.

It was Etherton and Seabol who had the most success on Thursday, however. Etherton, Portland's starting pitcher, began his outing with three perfect innings before running into a bit of trouble in the fourth. The biggest trouble came from Seabol, who hit two long home runs off the righty. Etherton surrendered just the two runs on three hits while striking out six over seven innings pitched. He was more effective than Albuquerque starter Jeff Fulchino. The big Isotope surrendered eight hits over 5.1 innings, with the big blows being a home run off the concrete by first baseman Jon Knott in the second, and a two run double in the sixth off the bat of center fielder Dustin Delucchi. The last few innings passed quickly, and the Beavers came out on top of a 3-2 score.

I enjoyed the game at PGE park. I was a bit surprised by the lack of turnout. The call of cheap beer brought just over 6,000 fans to the park. The crowd was easily swallowed up by the expanses of the stadium, however (as noted above) the place did get loud toward the end of the night. The Portland, Oregon metro region is probably 10 times the size of Portland, Maine, but the Sea Dogs manage to put nearly the same number of fans in the ballpark. (On Wednesday evening, the Sea Dogs outdrew the Beavers by about 1,000 fans without the call of free hot dogs or beer.) I understand that the Oregon economy isn't all that strong right now, but it seems that a city that makes overtures of hosting a major league team ought to be able to sell a few more $8 - $10 tickets to a AAA game. Parking is limited, but access is very easy - the ballpark is walking distance from the heart of downtown, and the light rail train stops right outside. However, Ralph and I paid $5 each on the street for our $10 seats, and we were just 10 rows from the field. Alas, Portland's loss was my gain.

SeaBlog takes a Break

2006-05-08T08:44:00.000-04:00

There will be a brief hiatus here at the SeaBlog. My work duties are taking me to the other Portland for a conference. Fortunately the Portland Beavers will be in town while I am there. The Beavers are the AAA affiliate of the Seattle Mariners, and are currently in third place in the Pacific Coast League's "Pacific North" division with a 16-14 record. I plan to catch the Thursday matchup vs. the Albuquerque Isotopes. The Isotopes, with a 22-9 record, may very well be a better team than their parent club, the Florida Marlins. I'll check in over the weekend with my impressions and some photos.

Sea Dogs are Rolling

2006-05-08T08:14:00.000-04:00

The Sea Dogs completed a sweep of the New Britain Rock Cats over the weekend, and now have won nine of their last 10 games to pull into first place in the EL North, 1/2 game ahead of the Connecticut Defenders. Due to two nights of rain, I was unable to catch the Defenders when they were in town, but Portland took two of three in between their sweeps of New Britain and Bowie. Dr. Jekyll has had two terrific starts in the past week, allowing one run on just two hits with seven strikeouts over seven innings yesterday, following a six-inning, two-hit, 10 K stint on Monday night. Gabbard is now 4-1 with a 3.13 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 32 K's in 31.2 innings pitched on the season.

Portland's bats have started to come around as well, as the team scored 23 runs in the three games at New Britain. The entire starting lineup is now batting over .200, and new left fielder Jay Johnson has been a sparkplug, batting 333-2-9 in his first eight games at AA.

The Sea Dogs return home for a three-game stint vs. the rival Trenton Thunder before heading back out on the road at the end of the week. Unfortunately, travels will keep me from this series, and will also keep me from previewing the Thunder this week.